Leadership Void Fuels Disarray in Iraq

The protracted delay in forming an Iraqi government is imperiling the appointment of its prime minister, providing a new impetus for the insurgency and fanning renewed suspicion of the U.S. role here, Iraqi and Western observers say.

Doubts are growing that the government, once formed, will have time to complete the constitution-writing process -- its principal task -- by the mid-August deadline.

Almost three months since lawmakers were chosen in the landmark Jan. 30 election, they have yet to agree on the composition of a government. The transitional National Assembly has held several meetings but, stymied by ethnic, religious and political divides, has yet to set its bylaws or begin discussing the constitution.

Sharp differences about power-sharing arrangements among the major factions have blocked a settlement that would lead to the naming of a Cabinet and filling other key posts.

One Western official said the equivalent of a filibuster had emerged in an attempt to thwart efforts by newly appointed Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari, of the majority Shiite Muslim bloc, to form his government. If he fails to do so within two weeks, he will be replaced as premier.

Ethnic Kurds and loyalists of outgoing Prime Minister Iyad Allawi are said to have allied to stop Jafari, several Shiite insiders charge.

“Their intention is to keep Jafari out of his job,” one despondent Jafari supporter said Saturday. “Everything is bad.”

Another sticking point is who gets to control billions of dollars in reconstruction funds. Kurds are said to be pushing for the money to be put under the auspices of a Kurdish-controlled ministry. Shiites fear that would mean the bulk of the money would be funneled to the northern Kurdish regions.

Amid surging violence in Iraq, the need to fill the void in authority has become acute.

The top United Nations diplomat in Iraq, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, met Saturday with Jafari and called for a quick end to the 11-week deadlock.

“There’s a need to get the transitional government stood up quickly,” said a U.S. official in Baghdad who declined to be identified. “There’s a public perception of greater insecurity.”

The last two weeks have seen a pronounced increase in attacks and a rise in sectarian tensions and violence, including the discovery in the Tigris River of dozens of bodies, allegedly Shiites killed by Sunni Muslim guerrillas.

The violence may well have surged even if a government had been in office. U.S. commanders say that peaks and troughs in attacks have characterized the 2-year-old insurgency. And there is a growing consensus that the insurgents will not be defeated for years.

But on the streets and in the halls of power, Iraqis believe that the pro-democracy momentum of Jan. 30, when millions defied guerrilla threats and proudly displayed their ink-stained fingers after voting, has been sapped as negotiations for top posts have dragged on.

“Of course the delay in forming the new government opens the way for terrorist activities,” said Hikamat Haky, a high school teacher in the capital. “There is no authority.”

The sense of frustration among Iraqis is palpable, and many blame behind-the-scenes manipulation by the United States. The Iraqi inclination to embrace conspiracy theories involving schemes hatched in Washington has reemerged forcefully.

“After the elections, people hoped to see a government with authority and sovereignty, but they waited and waited and finally gave up,” said Jamil Hadity, a retired government worker. “Now everyone realizes we are an occupied country that cannot have any government of our own.”

U.S. officials deny having interfered and say they have stayed away from the talks on forming a government, although the embassy here is monitoring developments closely.

“It’s the Iraqis who are negotiating it, not us,” a U.S. official said. “We are encouraging them to stay engaged. It is a tough negotiation -- line by line, in some cases.”

An underlying obstacle to a settlement is simply persuading the often-competing ethnic, religious and political factions in the National Assembly to agree in a nation riven by mistrust and lacking a recent history of democracy.

By most accounts, consensus has been reached on many key posts, including the election of Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish chieftain, as president. His two elected deputies are a prominent Shiite, Adel Abdul Mehdi, finance minister in the outgoing interim government; and Ghazi Ajil Yawer, a Sunni Arab who served as president. All sides have also agreed to work on increasing representation of Sunni Arabs, who largely stayed away from the January election because of a boycott and security concerns.

But a major barrier in the negotiations, all agree, has been the unsuccessful efforts to bring Allawi and his party into the new government.

Allawi has long been a U.S. favorite, but since his slate finished third in the election -- winning 40 of the 275 seats in the National Assembly -- he apparently has been relegated to a sideline role. He has not gone away quietly, however.

The dominant Shiite and Kurdish elected leaderships have called for a government of national unity, which would theoretically give Allawi’s slate some ministerial portfolios.

The Shiite bloc controls a slight assembly majority, 140 seats, and the runner-up Kurdish alliance has 75 seats. Thus, the Shiites and Kurds must work together to muster the two-thirds majority needed for major votes.

Some believe that Allawi has yet to relinquish his designs on becoming prime minister and may be working to derail Jafari, an Islamist appointed to the post by President Talabani and his deputies.

Jafari will lose the appointment if he cannot form a government by May 7, 30 days after he was named.

That turn of events, deemed unlikely a few weeks ago, would necessitate the naming of a new prime minister -- and, some believe, Allawi might step in.

According to that scenario, Allawi’s push is receiving behind-the-scenes aid from secular Kurdish factions that are uncomfortable with Jafari, who is often called a cleric without a turban.

Among other things, Jafari is known for declining to shake women’s hands, though he is said to have recently shaken the hand of visiting U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

How Allawi, a secular Shiite, would win support of the largely Islamist Shiite majority in the legislature remains unclear.

Although the Kurdish and Shiite blocs have negotiated together since Jan. 30, the Shiites have long been suspicious of Kurdish territorial ambitions in the oil-rich region of Kirkuk.

Allawi, who has a longtime working relationship with the Kurdish leadership, may be more amenable to Kurdish demands, many believe.

Waleed Hilli, an advisor to Jafari’s Islamic Dawa Party, said on Iraqi television Saturday that Allawi’s demands were “difficult, illogical and unacceptable,” but that Kurds were insisting on Allawi’s involvement in the government. Allawi is said to be seeking at least four ministries for his party.

A conspiracy theory making the rounds is that U.S. authorities, also uncomfortable with Jafari’s religious bent and his bloc’s close relations with Iran, may be working quietly to torpedo his nomination, using their strong ties with the Kurds and Allawi to press the issue. Allawi has long had ties to the U.S. intelligence community.

American officials deny any such role. Allawi called on officials Saturday to complete the government as soon as possible.

Uncertainty is mounting even before the government takes on its toughest task: writing the constitution, a document that will address many contentious issues, including the role of religion in government, federalism, Kurdish autonomy and the process used in future elections.

The deadline is mid-August, with a scheduled referendum on the document set for mid-October.

But the assembly can opt for a six-month extension, an alternative that many consider likely.

From the standpoint of new lawmakers, such an extension could have another benefit: It would prolong the political lives of transitional National Assembly members by six months. The current schedule calls for another assembly election in December.

Times staff writers Zainab Hussein, Suhail Ahmad, Raheem Salman, Caesar Ahmed and Saif Rasheed in Baghdad contributed to this report.