Rumsfeld Lowers Estimate on Base Closings

WASHINGTON —  The Pentagon now foresees a much smaller round of base closings and consolidations, saying it has half as much surplus space as previously estimated, according to Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

That is likely to make the touchy subject of base closings less difficult for the Bush administration, although any closures cause angst among the affected communities and their representatives in Congress.

Rumsfeld is to submit his recommendations to the independent Base Realignment and Closure Commission no later than May 16, and the commission is required by law to submit its final report to President Bush by Sept. 8.

The Pentagon has kept an exceptionally tight lid on information about which bases could be closed or realigned. Rumsfeld is scheduled to testify publicly before the commission May 16.

For the last few years, the Pentagon has said it had 20% to 25% more U.S. base capacity than needed for the Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.

But in a conference call with newspaper editorial writers across the country Thursday, Rumsfeld said the surplus was not nearly as large as had been estimated, in part because tens of thousands of U.S. troops would be brought home from bases in Asia and Europe.

“Without final figures, I would say the percent will be less than half of the 20 to 25% that has been characterized previously,” Rumsfeld said, according to two writers who were on the conference call. A third writer confirmed that Rumsfeld had said the cuts would be about half of previous estimates.

Because bases vary in size and utility, cutting capacity is not the same as cutting a specific number of bases. Rumsfeld has given no estimate of the number of bases that could get cut.

The Pentagon plans to bring about 70,000 troops home from Germany and South Korea, along with their dependents.