The American Dream ... in Mexico

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s recent encouragement of vigilantes along the U.S.-Mexico border has revived ghosts from California’s immigration wars of the 1990s. It’s not surprising because the issue is ripe for political demagoguery. Yet rarely do the bumper-sticker slogans match the border’s complex reality.

The Census Bureau predicts that by 2050 the number of Latinos and Asians will triple in the U.S. -- nearly evenly from immigration and growing birthrate -- and whites will make up only 50% of the nation’s population. Latinos are by far the fastest-growing population. In a few decades, most of the U.S. will look like California today, and California will look more like Mexico.

For many people, these changes are alarming. But economic disparities guarantee that poor Mexicans will continue seeking entry into El Norte, legally or illegally. So if we can’t shut out Mexicans seeking a better life and can’t just throw open the border, what else can we do?

There is a third way that holds great promise: gradual integration of the American and Mexican economies. That process has begun, but it has been resisted by labor unions as well as the right wing, resulting in the wrong regulatory scheme -- the North American Free Trade Agreement. For a better model, look to the European Union. In May 2004, the 15 nations of the EU integrated 10 new nations, becoming the largest global trading bloc.

Europe realized it had to prevent a “giant sucking sound” of businesses and jobs relocating from the 15 wealthier nations to the 10 poorer nations. It also had to foster prosperity and the spread of a middle class in these emerging economies, and prevent an exodus of poor workers. So it gave the new states massive subsidies -- billions of dollars’ worth -- to help with the construction of schools, roads, telecommunications and housing, making these nations more attractive for business investment. The idea is to raise the emerging economies rather than drag down the advanced economies. It is expensive, but the result will be a larger economic union in which a rising tide floats all boats. In return, the 10 poorer nations must agree to raise their standards on the environment, labor laws and health and safety. There won’t be any border maquiladoras in the European Union.

The EU suggests the direction that border policy between the U.S. and Mexico needs to go. Increasingly, it will make sense to move the North American regional integration out of the realm of a shadow economy and flawed free trade agreement. But what might such an American-Mexican union look like?

It would start with massive subsidies from the U.S. to Mexico, a Tex-Mex Marshall Plan, with the goal of decreasing disparities on the Mexican side of the border and fostering a climate riper for investment. This would create more jobs in Mexico and foster a middle class, homeownership and better schools, roads and healthcare. Fewer Mexicans would then desire to emigrate north, instead staying home, creating more consumers to buy U.S. products.

But here’s an even more intriguing possibility. We always assume that opening the border means hordes of Mexicans would stream north. But under this scenario, Americans also would begin emigrating to Mexico. With the cost of living spiraling along the coasts and in cities, many Americans would find the warm climate and palm trees of Mexico a more attractive alternative than relocating to the frigid tundras of Kansas or Iowa. Call it the Mexican safety valve, and all things being closer to equal, many American workers could relocate to Mexico in search of jobs and homeownership, even to start businesses.

In other words, they would chase the American dream in Mexico. Already we see the beginnings of this, with American expatriate communities springing up around cities such as Guadalajara. But Europe’s union is not just an economic one; it also includes continent-wide political institutions in which all 25 nations are represented.

As American-Mexican economic integration unfolds, regional political structures also make more sense, perhaps including an American-Mexican parliamentary body. Canada, not wishing to be left out, might ask for inclusion.

Of course, U.S. politicians will not talk realistically about this kind of integration. They prefer to stick to bumper-sticker slogans and avoid the reality of border issues until they are overtaken by the surging tide. But that day is looming closer.