Latest Windows Delay Is a Yawner
Microsoft Corp. may be languishing in its own success.
When the software giant this week delayed until January the rollout of a long-awaited update to Windows, computer users yawned and financial markets barely budged.
That ennui illustrates how rapidly personal computers have evolved from technological marvels to mere appliances and highlights the challenges facing Silicon Valley as it tries to make PCs sexy again.
Contrast the subdued expectations for Vista with Windows 95 -- the last rock star operating system -- which was rolled out a decade ago to a soundtrack of the Rolling Stones’ “Start Me Up.” Thousands of early adopters lined up outside computer stores to buy copies at a minute past midnight, like groupies desperate for tickets.
This time around, the anthem could well be another Stones’ tune: “Cool, Calmed & Collected.”
“Expectations for Vista are not high,” said Joe Lavigne, a past president of the Golden Gate Computer Society, in the San Francisco Bay Area. “What is the selling point?”
It’s not that Windows is any less vital. In fact, the opposite may be true, given that it powers the vast majority of the world’s PCs. But it’s gotten better over the years. Longtime computer users noted that at least some of the excitement over previous iterations of the software stemmed from the hope that the infamous blue screen of death might meet its own demise.
“You don’t notice when a road is smooth; you notice when a road’s bad,” said Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster at the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park, Calif. “These days, you only pay attention to your operating system when it goes down.”
And as Windows improves -- the XP operating systems are generally perceived as being substantial upgrades from previous versions -- PCs have lost some of their mystery.
A decade ago, buying and setting up a new PC was a family affair. Now, with PCs in nearly 75% of homes, “we’re at the refrigerator stage,” said Joe Wilcox of JupiterResearch, explaining that the family PC is like an appliance that gets used until it breaks.
Most businesses and home users replace their computers about every four years.
PC makers such as Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell Inc. are trying to revive some of the excitement by building machines that act more as Internet-connected entertainment devices than word processors. Chip makers such as Intel Corp. are designing innards better able to handle audio and video.
The challenge for Microsoft is to buff the PC’s image by improving versatility and ease of use. Users want to combine entertainment, such as movies and music, effortlessly with online activities and work -- something Microsoft hopes Vista will improve. But instead of marketing to the person or selling a lifestyle or aspiration, Microsoft and the PC makers tend to sell an explosion of features that users find dry or confusing.
“Microsoft has a good story to tell,” Wilcox said. “It doesn’t always do a good job telling it.”
Microsoft shares have been flat for most of the last four years. They fell 30 cents Thursday to $26.85.
Years ago, a hiccup in Microsoft’s upgrade machine sent shock waves through the computing world. Exasperated geeks went hungry for new features. The company’s multitudes of hardware partners depended on upgrades to move new machines. Although Vista will remain out of view until after Christmas, the large computer makers took the news in stride.
“We fully support them in determining the most appropriate schedule for the Windows Vista launch ... and look forward to focusing on an exciting post-holiday launch,” HP spokeswoman Tiffany Smith said.
Microsoft responded with greater urgency. On Thursday, it announced a shake-up of its Windows division. Steven Sinofsky, who leads the company’s highly successful Office software division, will take over from Windows division Co-President Jim Allchin after Vista’s release.
Sinofsky is regarded as a master in keeping complex projects on schedule. Office has been coming out every two or three years, while there has not been a major release of Windows for nearly five years.
Brad Goldberg, a Windows general manager, said the mainstreaming of PCs and other consumer technologies had made them more integral to users’ lives and technology habits. Improvements and changes in Windows, the hub that enables many of those capabilities, have become more crucial, he said.
“We want how the operating system works to be invisible to the user, but the experience of Windows to be front and center,” Goldberg said. “Windows is a core experience.”
No matter how late Microsoft’s products are, the company’s monopoly insulates them from incursions by other software makers in its core markets.
“Most software companies risk losing market share if their products get out the door late and behind competitors,” said David Hilal, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, in a research note after the latest delay was announced. “If Vista is late, there obviously is no meaningful market share loss.”
But Microsoft still faces a stiff challenge convincing customers that the benefits outweigh the costs to users who have already filled their pressing needs. Vista has to overcome a high “good enough” bar.
Vista’s promised improvements seem obscure to many users who are already shifting from PC-based entertainment and productivity software to online alternatives, experts said. Microsoft has struggled to find its footing in a world of Web services that other companies, such as Google, have quickly developed.
“Does the operating system matter? The answer is no,” said Jeffrey Tarter, founder of the industry newsletter Softletter. “What matters is the Internet. Nobody cares about how fast your PC is, they care about how fast your connection is.”
Stung by problems with earlier Windows upgrades, such as compatibility problems with key hardware and software and sieve-like security against viruses and spyware, businesses have become risk-averse, Tarter said. Many still use 6-year-old Windows 2000 -- the first version that was reasonably stable and secure -- because they standardized all their in-house software applications around its features.
Even PC retailers, which want Vista to stimulate demand, seemed relieved rather than concerned by the delay.
“Vista is going to create a lot of interim headaches for your average user,” said James Conklin, who manages a CompUSA store in the heart of Silicon Valley. “It’s not something I’m looking forward to.”
He said customers would probably wait for Vista’s bugs to be worked out before they buy.
“XP is going to run flawlessly on your machine for some time to come,” Conklin said. “People don’t want to go through the pain.”
That’s what Jim Dinkey, president of the Stanford-Palo Alto User Group, plans to do. Vista is so complex, he said, it will probably be riddled with bugs for some time to come.
“Anybody with any sense will ignore Vista for at least two years while they get the darn thing straightened out,” Dinkey said.
