Benefit of a Name Is Relative

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. —  Every second, a digital clock on Gov. Jeb Bush’s desk counts down to the moment in January that his term ends, a reminder that one of the most powerful figures in American politics is about to step off the public stage.

On one afternoon this month -- with 241 days, three hours and 20 minutes to go -- the fading term was on the minds of some important supporters as well. A group of Christian activists had gathered near Bush’s office to commemorate the National Day of Prayer. “Four more years,” one worshiper called out as Bush prepared to address the group. “Don’t I wish,” replied the master of ceremonies, a local Christian organizer. A murmur of approval rose from the crowd.

The moment was another reminder of the unique conundrum facing Bush, who is barred by state law from seeking a third term. With the 2008 race for president now wide open, Bush has what every potential Republican candidate covets: national name recognition, access to his family’s powerful fundraising machinery and, as the gathering of Christian supporters illustrated, a sterling reputation among the core of the GOP base. One recent poll reported his approval rating across Florida at 63% -- a strong position in what is the nation’s most populous battleground state.

And yet the very factor that fosters many of these advantages -- the Bush family name -- is holding this Bush back. With his older brother, President George W. Bush, showing approval ratings that are among the lowest of any modern president, many GOP activists and strategists believe the nation would not elect another Bush, at least not now.

Even so, some players in the 2008 campaign appear to find Jeb Bush’s political capital too tantalizing to ignore.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), an early front-runner for the presidential nomination, flew to Tallahassee in December for a private lunch with Bush at the governor’s mansion, fueling the notion of a McCain-Bush ticket. Advisors to both men acknowledge that such a pairing would help McCain court skeptical conservatives, who will be crucial in GOP primary races.

The Family Research Council, an influential evangelical activist group, has invited Gov. Bush to appear at a fall conference of “values voters,” along with would-be presidential candidates.

President Bush himself added to the speculation over the governor’s future during a stop in Florida last week, saying that his brother would make a “great president” but that Jeb had deflected private questions on the topic.

And the Florida governor is showing signs of a promising future after the countdown clock hits zero. He recently revived his private policy foundation to promote school vouchers and other conservative ideas, raising more than $1.5 million from corporations and friends. He took the unusual step of endorsing a candidate in the Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary, backing eventual nominee Ken Blackwell and earning political chits that could be useful later in another important presidential battleground state.

The idea of a continuing role for Jeb Bush is delighting some conservatives, who are eager for alternatives in a crop of 2008 hopefuls that has yet to excite many in the party base.

“There clearly is a vacancy thus far in terms of a Republican candidate that conservatives can rally around,” said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council. “Until that is settled, there will be speculation swirling around Jeb Bush.”

Bush has told his closest friends and supporters that he does not intend to run for president in the next election, and Perkins and other conservative activists say they take him at his word. But some strategists are eyeing his value as a running mate, particularly for candidates such as McCain, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who are viewed warily by coveted evangelical voters.

“Jeb Bush will be on anyone’s short list,” said Mark McKinnon, a strategist for President Bush who is advising McCain and accompanied the senator on his Florida trip. “He’s got incredible experience, unqualified conservative credentials, and he brings Florida. It’s the trifecta.

“With his accomplishments,” McKinnon added, “Jeb Bush would overcome any hangover effect or fatigue” associated with the family name.

Bush’s star appears to be high even while his power is declining in his own Capitol. He recently suffered embarrassing losses when Republican senators refused to enshrine his controversial private-school voucher program in the Florida Constitution and when the outgoing speaker of the state House, Republican Allan G. Bense, declined aggressive appeals by Gov. Bush and the White House to enter the U.S. Senate race.

Nationally, his reputation was colored by his push last year to keep a brain-damaged woman on life support over the objections of her husband. Polls showed that the general public objected to Bush’s actions to keep Terri Schiavo alive. But his stance endeared him all the more to Christian conservatives.

National conservative leaders say they like the fact that Bush has governed as an unabashed conservative, cutting taxes and promoting private-school vouchers, while maintaining favor with mainstream voters -- a balancing act that has proved more difficult for his brother in the White House. “I don’t think he apologizes for being a conservative, and look where his approval numbers are,” said Pat Toomey, who heads the pro-business Club for Growth.

Most striking, even to Bush’s Florida critics, is the contrast between the governor and the president.

The differences begin with style: Jeb is a hands-on policy wonk who reads newspapers voraciously; George is known to focus on the big picture and rely on compact briefing papers.

President Bush appeared out of touch and aloof as Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast; Gov. Bush responded to multiple hurricanes by appearing constantly in public, directing meetings at the state’s emergency operations center, and personally handing out ice and bottled water.

And the president pokes fun at his own misuse of the English language, whereas Jeb Bush is a smooth public speaker in both English and Spanish. The Florida governor has helped solidify GOP support among Cuban Americans in Miami, while also winning support from traditionally Democratic non-Cuban Latinos.

All of that puts pressure on Florida Democrats, who hope to take back the governor’s mansion and other statewide offices. Party leaders acknowledge that they want to campaign against the president, but must deal with the fact that the state’s voters seem to like the governor.

“People feel comfortable with him,” said incoming state House Democratic leader Dan Gelber. “They feel that he has an appetite for detail, that he’s attentive to the details of governance.”

A proposal that has bipartisan backing could make Bush more relevant when he leaves office. The plan would schedule the state’s presidential primary for a week after New Hampshire’s, meaning Florida would suddenly be the biggest early prize in the presidential sweepstakes.

“Every presidential candidate will want Jeb Bush’s endorsement,” said incoming state House Speaker Marco Rubio, a Republican. “You could argue that regardless of who the next governor is, Jeb Bush will still be the biggest political force in Florida.”

Both GOP candidates vying to succeed Bush sought to share the stage with him for the National Day of Prayer. Neither received the standing ovation accorded the governor. And they could only watch as Bush wandered through the crowd at the beginning of the ceremony, posing for pictures and signing autographs.

Standing 6 feet 4, he is taller and broader than his brother. His salt-and-pepper hair gives no hint of the youthful rookie who narrowly lost his first campaign for governor 12 years ago -- the loss that, combined with his brother’s surprising gubernatorial win in Texas that year, put George rather than Jeb in line for the presidency.

The master of ceremonies at the Day of Prayer, evangelical activist Pam Olsen, lauded Gov. Jeb Bush, a Roman Catholic, as “a man who strongly believes in the power of prayer and the God almighty.”

Bush did not disappoint his audience, noting that earlier in the day he had signed a law making permanent a program in the governor’s office to help direct public money to religious charities.

Then he offered a prayer for the safety of Floridians during hurricane season, for U.S. troops and for state lawmakers. “We ask for all of this in the name of your son, Jesus,” he concluded.

If his words sounded like a politician still eager to please his constituents, there are more signs that Bush is attuned to other aspects of his image and has learned from past mistakes.

When two black lawmakers held a sit-in in his office to protest his 1999 rollback of affirmative action programs, Bush responded with an angry outburst. This year, he tried a different tack when college students orchestrated a sit-in outside his office to protest what they perceived as a botched state investigation into a black boy’s death after guards beat him at a Panhandle boot camp.

Bush met with some student protesters and the teenage inmate’s parents as the Revs. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson arranged a protest outside. Bush also spoke to the radio station of the historically black Florida A&M; University to denounce the beating.

“I just can’t imagine the feelings of sadness and grief” of the boy’s parents, he said as he pledged action.

The 14-year-old’s death was the latest in a series of scandals to strike state agencies under Bush. They have led to critical media coverage of the governor but little change in his overall approval ratings.

The governor’s close associates say he has made no plans for after his term.

Many expect he will return to his hometown of Miami, perhaps to rejoin his old real estate development firm or to find some other high-paying position in the private sector.

But, at 53, retiring from politics might be a difficult adjustment, particularly for someone who has been involved in national or state elections in every cycle since he moved to Florida in 1980, to work for his father’s first presidential campaign.

An aide gave him the digital countdown clock at the 1,000-day mark, knowing the frenetic, work-obsessed Bush would want to cram as much activity as possible into his final stretch.

Although he refuses to mull the future in public these days, Bush did once offer a hint of his views on a life without politics. In 2001, a year before his reelection, a college student asked what he would do if he lost. “I’d be headed toward a midlife crisis,” Bush said. “You’d probably find me in a fetal position on the side of a road sucking my thumb.”

For now, the clock is still ticking.