Result of Montenegro’s Independence Vote Unclear

PODGORICA, Serbia and Montenegro —  Montenegrins turned out in force Sunday to vote on independence from Serbia, and early today the prime minister, who led the separatist drive, declared victory.

But the vote was so close that the opposition refused to concede, and pollsters withheld predictions.

Under rules agreed to with the European Union, 55% of eligible Montenegrin voters who cast ballots must approve separation.

If Montenegro approves independence, it will be the last of the republics that made up the former Yugoslav federation to split off. If it joins the European Union, it will be the smallest member after Luxembourg and the island of Malta.

Hours after balloting ended, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said he was confident that voters had narrowly approved the referendum.

People thronged polling stations throughout the day, and thousands of Montenegrins who work abroad came home to cast their ballots. At least 16,000 Montenegrins have returned since late last week, said Lisa McClain of the National Democratic Institute’s Montenegro office, which trained pollsters and has tracked the vote closely.

“It was a huge turnout ... but the vote is too close to call,” McClain said. “It just cannot be statistically accurate when it’s that close. We looked at 20% of the polling stations and we did not see any clear trends.”

Zoran Lucic of the Center for Monitoring, a Montenegrin polling group that surveyed 299 of the 1,120 polling stations, said the group had backed away from an assessment Sunday evening that the independence campaign had won. Early today, the center said Montenegro would have to await official results from the electoral commission.

The referendum was hard fought and highly emotional for both sides. Although many Montenegrins have strong ties to Serbia, with families divided between the two entities, others feel a strong sense of a separate identity, dating to the period before World War I when the mountainous Adriatic region was an independent country.

Both the pro-independence faction and the pro-union faction urged their supporters to come home to vote and offered incentives such as free air and train tickets. Local media reported numerous allegations that independence party officials coerced and threatened anti-independence voters.

The energy put into drumming up votes by both sides underscored the importance of identity in the Balkans, where borders have shifted repeatedly in the last century.

“This is about an elementary human thing, one of the most basic things that one needs to know: What is the name of one’s country [and] where its boundaries are,” said Spevan Radusinovic, an actor who supported independence and was hoping to celebrate its victory at the Democratic Party of Socialists headquarters Sunday.

Although an official from the party announced that the referendum had won, its leaders refused to say by how much, and earlier in the evening Djukanovic postponed a victory statement.

Independence supporters, who had poured into the streets, firing guns into the air and setting off fireworks, abandoned their celebrations when victory was cast in doubt. Police, some in riot gear, were on the streets in force. Many late-night kiosks and cafes closed early, their owners nervous about the possibility of violence from the losers.

Opposition leader Predrag Bulatovic, who would like to see Montenegro’s loose union with Serbia remain, was cautious.

“Here every vote counts,” Bulatovic said early today. His aides said they expected the referendum’s results might be decided by as few as 200 votes.

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Times staff writer Rubin reported from Vienna and special correspondent Cirjakovic from Podgorica.