Pombo race is the fight of his career

STOCKTON —  Only a few months ago, most savvy political analysts had concluded that beating seven-term Republican Congressman Richard Pombo in his comfortable Northern California district was Jerry McNerney’s impossible dream.

The little-known Democrat McNerney, they said, may as well have been tilting at the wind turbines in Altamont Pass, which separates the solidly liberal San Francisco Bay Area from the largely conservative exurban ranchland that is Pombo’s stronghold.

But charges of political corruption and environmental mismanagement against Pombo, the powerful chairman of the House Resources Committee, would not go away. Hundreds of political volunteers and environmental activists poured into the district from the Bay Area to work for McNerney, 55, a soft-spoken mathematics PhD and expert on alternative energy.

As Tuesday’s election approaches, California’s 11th Congressional District is highly competitive, the most likely of the state’s 53 congressional seats to change hands Tuesday.

“This is a race that clearly has defied conventional wisdom and expectation,” said Amy Walter, senior editor of the independent Cook Political Report, which now classifies the race as a toss-up. “We knew what Pombo’s weaknesses were, but we also knew that the Democrats had not been able to get their top candidate to run. But with less than a week to go, it’s clear that Pombo has not put this one away.”

A victory here could be an unexpected boost for the national Democratic Party, which until recently had given up on California contributing anything to the 15 seats it needs to take control of Congress.

Other California contests in which Democrats are given an outside shot at picking up a seat are the 4th Congressional District in the neighboring Sierra foothills, where eight-term incumbent John T. Doolittle, like Pombo, has been linked to convicted Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and the 50th District in northern San Diego County where Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray are seeking the seat formerly held by Republican Randy “Duke” Cunningham, now in federal prison for taking bribes.

Analysts say no Democratic seats appear to be at risk.

Though recognizing Pombo’s perilous position, Republicans remain confident that the 45-year-old former Tracy rancher and truck driver will survive his toughest challenge, if only on the coattails of Republican Gov. Schwarzenegger’s anticipated victory over Democrat Phil Angelides.

“Turnout will be depressed for Democrats,” Assemblyman and congressional candidate Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) predicted. “The majority of Democrats believe Angelides is going to lose.”

But two recent polls show McNerney statistically tied with Pombo, who defeated him in their first matchup in 2004 by 61% to 38%. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by 6%.

Pombo, who favors bluejeans and cowboy boots, and McNerney, a blue blazer and gray slacks man, could hardly be less alike.

Pombo dropped out of college to work in the family feedlot. McNerney has his doctorate from the University of New Mexico and worked as a wind energy consultant to PG&E; Corp. and other companies.

Pombo, who never served in the military, is a staunch supporter of the Bush administration policy in Iraq; McNerney, who spent two years at West Point, calls it a “war of aggression.” Pombo, a Catholic, opposes embryonic stem cell research; McNerney, a scientist, is an enthusiastic supporter.

Their backers also are distinct: A recent infusion of $1.3 million in Republican Party money to prop up Pombo has been matched by $1 million from wealthy patrons of environmental causes, including the descendants of oil magnate J. Paul Getty and computer baron David Packard.

In another sign that the race is tightening, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last week reversed an earlier position that the district was unwinnable and spent $216,689 on behalf of McNerney. Overall, $2.6 million has been spent on the race, including $500,000 in independent contributions from environmental groups opposing Pombo.

To rally his supporters, Pombo has brought in Vice President Dick Cheney, President Bush and, this week, First Lady Laura Bush. The Democrats countered Thursday night with former President Clinton, who appeared before a crowd of several hundred McNerney supporters assembled on the rain-drenched tarmac of the Stockton airport.

“I’m seeing things I never thought I’d see,” said Clinton, who was in office when the Republicans wrested control of Congress in 1994. “Democrats are winning in places where no Democrat has ever served before.”

This weekend, actors Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner are scheduled to stump with McNerney in the affluent communities on the eastern side of the Oakland Hills, where Pombo’s support is weakest.

Republican ads in the expensive Bay Area and Sacramento media markets depict McNerney as an indecisive nobody who changed 55 of his answers on a policy questionnaire from a voters organization.

“What do we really know about Jerry McNerney except that he is an extreme liberal who wants to raise our taxes?” one Pombo radio commercial asks. The ad also attacks McNerney for busing in his campaign workers “from Berkeley.”

Opposition ads paint Pombo as one of the “13 most corrupt members of Congress,” linking him to the ongoing scandal involving lobbyist Abramoff.

“Call Richard Pombo and tell him to end his corrupt behavior,” urges one ad, paid for by a group calling itself Americans for Conservation.

Federal Election Commission records show that Americans for Conservation is composed of six people, including Getty heiress Anne Earhart of Corona del Mar, Julie Packard of Soquel, Calif., and Texas financier David Bonderman, a business partner of Richard Blum, the husband of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Although the focus of the campaign has been corruption and, to a lesser extent, the war in Iraq, much of the money on the McNerney side has come from environmental groups.

Incensed by what they contend is Pombo’s attempt to dismantle the Environmental Protection Act and sell off 15 national parks, the major contributors are the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund ($600,000); Americans for Conservation ($500,000); the League of Conservation Voters ($156,130) and the Sierra Club ($31,722).

If McNerney wins, said Defenders of Wildlife President Rodger Schlickeisen, who organized Americans for Conservation, it could change the way that environmental interests engage in future elections.

“I don’t want to get too optimistic,” Schlickeisen said, “but we’ve taken a race that all the political handicappers said was a long shot and turned it into a toss-up.”

But the outcome still depends on voters such as Daljit Singh, 58, a real estate agent who was in the crowd Thursday night at the Stockton airport. Singh said he voted for Pombo in 2004 but is disturbed by the war in Iraq and is considering changing his mind.

“I’m leaning toward McNerney this time because of the war and because of his position on alternative energy,” Singh said.

rone.tempest@latimes.com

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Times staff writer Dan Morain contributed to this report.

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