Fewer fly, but the lines will be long

Local airport authorities expect this holiday to be a turkey.

At Los Angeles, Long Beach, Burbank and Ontario, officials predict the number of passengers using the region’s airports will be down slightly or the same as the 10-day Thanksgiving period last year.

“We’re not quite as heavily booked at this point in time as we were last year,” said Victor Gill, a spokesman for Bob Hope Airport in Burbank.

But make no mistake about it: Security and ticket counter lines will still test passengers’ patience, and there will be little elbow room on planes. Officials are also concerned that rules restricting liquids in carry-on bags will add to delays. They are urging travelers to review restrictions at www.tsa.gov and to arrive at airports several hours before their fights.

Nationwide, 25 million people will travel on U.S. airlines this Thanksgiving, up 3% from a similar period last year, according to a forecast by the Air Transport Assn., an airline trade group. Travel is down at some airports around the U.S. but up strongly at others, where low-cost carriers have added service.

It’s a different story in Southern California, where most airports have been hit particularly hard by higher fares and flight cutbacks.

At Los Angeles International Airport, officials expect 1.8 million travelers between last Friday and next Sunday, matching traffic levels experienced over a similar period last year, according to a forecast to be released today. Passenger numbers will also be flat year-over-year at Ontario International Airport, which expects 200,000 people over the 10-day holiday period, the forecast shows.

At Long Beach Airport, officials expect passenger totals to be down slightly from a similar period in 2005, but they caution that that doesn’t mean holiday travel will be easy.

“We’re anticipating a pretty full house over the holiday weekend,” said Sharon Diggs-Jackson, a spokeswoman at Long Beach Airport. “Parking will be our biggest challenge.”

High oil prices and sagging revenue prompted many airlines to reduce flights at LAX and other airports over the last two years, even as demand for tickets remained fairly steady. This allowed carriers to increase fares repeatedly, both locally and around the country.

From Los Angeles this Thanksgiving, the average round-trip fare to New York -- the most popular holiday destination for Angelenos -- is $438, up 12.6% from $389 last year. The average fare to Honolulu is $476, up 8.4% from $439 a year ago, and the average fare to Atlanta is $392, up 2.6% from $382.

“You pay a little more, and you fly full. It’s something to look forward to, huh?” said Robert Mann, an aviation analyst at R.W. Mann & Co.

Not only is travel costing more, the “hassle factor” is going up. Complaints about lost or mishandled baggage surged 81% in September, compared with a year ago, according to the federal government’s latest report. Gripes jumped after rules restricting liquids in carry-on bags instituted in August prompted passengers to check more baggage.

Even travelers lucky enough to arrive with their baggage are less likely to arrive on time. In September, 76% of U.S. airline flights arrived on time, the worst showing for that month since 2001. LAX ranked 17th among major U.S. airports, with an on-time arrival rate of 76.8%. That was down from 82.2% in September 2005.

Fewer fights and higher fares equal less business for Southern California airports. Except for Bob Hope Airport, the region’s facilities reported small passenger losses from January through September, compared with a similar period last year.

Nationwide, some other major airports, including O’Hare International in Chicago and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, also stayed flat or experienced slight dips in travelers from January to September. But business was up at airports where low-cost carriers added significant service. Among them were McCarran International in Las Vegas and Denver International, where passenger traffic increased 3.5% and 10.3%, respectively.

In Southern California, stalled passenger growth also means that LAX will not soon recover the business it lost after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as industry analysts had predicted.

Although most other major U.S. airports are serving more people than they did in 2000, LAX lags behind a record set that year. The airport lost more flights after the skyjackings and again after the beginning of the war in Iraq. A 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, a disease thought to have originated in Asia, also depressed travel through LAX.

Even so, LAX, where all terminal space is leased, isn’t suffering as traffic stagnates. That’s in part because the airport is raking in considerable revenue in increased parking fees and concessions.

Parking revenue increased 2.7% in the first nine months of the year. Sales at airport restaurants jumped 13.6% in the same period, compared with last year. That occurred in part because many airlines don’t serve food anymore, and people are buying restricted liquids, including water and wine, after they pass through security checkpoints.

“Travelers are getting through passenger screening more quickly due to more screening lanes and adequate staffing,” said Paul Haney, deputy executive director of airports and security for Los Angeles World Airports, the city agency that operates LAX. “This gives travelers more time to eat and drink as they wait for flights.”

Carriers at LAX say they want to add flights but can’t find gates at which to park the planes because they’re tied up by exclusive leaseholds with other airlines.

“American has a definite interest in the next 12 to 18 months in growing,” said Mark P. Mitchell, the airlines’ managing director in Los Angeles.

“We really have no opportunity to grow without extra gates. It certainly is a challenge,” he said.

Even with the dimmer Thanksgiving outlook, officials expect airlines to add flights at many Southern California airports next spring. Long Beach, for example, expects increases next year as JetBlue and Alaska Airlines add flights.

Los Angeles officials hope to reopen Palmdale Regional Airport in the Antelope Valley, using a federal grant as an incentive to lure airlines. They also expect significant gains at Ontario International.

“Next year we’ll see additional capacity at all our commercial airports,” Haney said.

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jennifer.oldham@latimes.com

Times staff writer Martin Zimmerman contributed to this report.

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Less frequent flyers

Some U.S. airports, including most in Southern California, handled fewer passengers through September of this year than in the same period last year.

Passenger traffic, January through September (In millions)

*--* 2005 2006 Percent Change Denver International 32.96 36.37 10.3% Bob Hope 4.08 4.26 4.4 McCarran International 33.29 34.45 3.5 O’Hare International 57.75 57.88 0.2 Los Angeles International 46.72 46.24 -1.0 John Wayne 7.28 7.20 -1.1 Ontario International 5.42 5.30 -2.2 Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International 65.54 63.71 -2.8 Long Beach 2.32 2.10 -9.5

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Source: Times reporting