Protests shatter image of Musharraf’s invincibility

Even as he oversaw a show of military might Friday to commemorate a milestone in Pakistani history, President Pervez Musharraf is facing the most serious domestic crisis of his tenure as leader of the nation and the army, one that experts say has weakened him heading into elections this year.

An outcry over Musharraf’s suspension of Pakistan’s top judge has brought protesters into the streets, prompted calls for the president to step down and refocused attention on the iron grip of the military establishment.

The demonstrations have tapped into a wellspring of public anger over the fact that, nearly eight years after Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup, the rule of law and the role of democratic institutions here remain tenuous at best.

The storm of protest also comes at a time when Musharraf is under fire from abroad for not doing enough to crack down on Islamic militancy, particularly from the U.S., which views Pakistan as a key ally in fighting terrorism and in defeating the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Together, the pressures have shattered the general-turned-president’s preferred image as an indispensable leader who enjoys the strong support of key allies both inside and outside Pakistan.

“One thing is certain,” said Talat Masood, an analyst and retired general in Islamabad, the capital. “The invincibility and the aura that surrounded Musharraf -- that he cannot be challenged -- has been broken.”

Nobody is predicting the president’s imminent ouster. Musharraf remains head of the military, the nation’s most powerful body, and it remains unclear whether ordinary Pakistanis will be angry enough to join the lawyers and opposition politicians who have spearheaded the protests of the last two weeks.

But analysts say popular discontent is both deep and wide, and that the latest imbroglio has the potential to become a referendum of sorts on Musharraf’s rule. At the least, it has put Musharraf on notice that his actions in coming months, particularly his handling of elections in which his job is at stake, will be under heavy scrutiny.

Ostensibly, the tumult centers on Musharraf’s removal March 9 of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry on charges of misconduct and abuse of privilege. Chaudhry has been accused of seeking preferential treatment for his son and misusing his official car, alleged offenses that, to many people, seem almost trivial in corruption-plagued Pakistan.

The judge’s real crime, some believe, was to stand up to the government in behalf of ordinary people.

Last year, Chaudhry blocked the privatization of Pakistan’s largest steel mill, which critics said would have benefited a rich, well-connected few at the expense of many. More recently -- and more seriously -- Chaudhry pressed Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, long considered untouchable, to answer allegations that they were illegally holding scores of “disappeared” people.

Going after Chaudhry, in the eyes of many here, symbolized Musharraf’s failure to fulfill his promise when he took power that there would be a return to law and order and, eventually, democratic rule.

Further proof, detractors say, was the government’s decision to send in riot police to break up anti-Musharraf rallies with batons and tear gas last week and to ransack a private television station that had covered the protests.

“The demonstrations against the chief justice’s removal reflect wider disaffection with Musharraf,” said Husain Haqqani of the Center for International Relations at Boston University. “By removing the chief justice and later attacking the media, Musharraf has provided his opponents with an issue that resonates with the general public and is seen as a matter of principle rather than of politics.”

Up to this point, Haqqani said, “Musharraf has been able to argue that he rules by the acquiescence of the Pakistani people, if not by their support reflected at the ballot box. Relative freedom of the media and the fact that Musharraf has not had to use force against his opponents in Pakistan’s major cities” had worked to his advantage.

“The recent demonstrations have changed that forever.”

On Friday, the streets of Islamabad were empty of protesters, replaced by an annual military parade in celebration of Pakistan Day, which marks a 1940 resolution by Muslim leaders in British India to carve out a separate Muslim homeland on the subcontinent.

Before thousands of people in a sports stadium, Musharraf appealed to his countrymen not to turn the crisis into “a political issue.”

“It is a legal issue, and it will be resolved only through legal and constitutional means,” he said.

But lawyers groups pledge to keep the heat on Musharraf, demanding Chaudhry’s reinstatement by the panel of senior judges adjudicating his case. The next hearing is scheduled for April 3.

Musharraf insists that he will abide by the panel’s decision. But analysts agree that whatever the outcome, the president is caught in a no-win situation and his best hope is to limit political fallout, not prevent it.

Hamid Sharif of the Asia Foundation’s Pakistan office said, “The only graceful way out would be for the president to distance himself and let some heads roll.

“It is not beyond this president to take a pragmatic approach,” he said. “And this is where Musharraf is different from previous dictators. He has the capacity to be pragmatic and can carve out a solution to this.”

Even so, Musharraf’s room to maneuver may be sharply curtailed in the wake of the controversy, including his ability to influence national elections slated for this year. A date has not been set.

Removing Chaudhry was seen as an attempt to shore up Musharraf’s chances of staying on as president. Musharraf wants the outgoing legislature, not an incoming one, to have the authority to reelect him to another term. And he wants to remain army chief, despite previous promises to pack up his uniform. Many observers think that, as chief justice, Chaudhry would not look favorably on the constitutionality of either of those issues.

“I feel it’s very difficult for [Musharraf] now to manipulate elections in a big way,” said Masood, the retired general. “The public will not accept it that easily anymore.”

It remains to be seen whether the main opposition political parties, a fragmented bunch, can cooperate and capitalize on the wave of public discontent. The parties of two exiled prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, have announced intentions to mount nationwide demonstrations Monday, but analysts say the two leaders’ agendas, strategies and personal ambitions conflict too much for them to work together effectively.

If he contains the damage and keeps the opposition divided, Musharraf can retain his grip on power -- but not without having paid a price, Boston University’s Haqqani said. His foes will have smelled blood, and the army could turn on him if it concludes he has become too big a political liability.

“Musharraf might be able to ride this storm out, but he will emerge from the current situation considerably weakened. Being a military strongman who looks weak,” Haqqani said, “is having the worst of all worlds.”

henry.chu@latimes.com