Who wins at follow the leader?

Phil Mickelson has a one-shot lead over Jeff Quinney when the last round begins today at Riviera Country Club. By the sound of things, there will be no handouts.

Said Mickelson: “I know I won’t be handed anything.”

Said Quinney: “He’s definitely not going to hand it to me.”

Good, at least that’s settled.

There are certain incontrovertible truths in pro golf. The hole looks the size of a bathtub when you’re playing well. Hitting trees is never a good idea. Always make sure your score adds up before you sign your card. And having to come from behind on the last day can wear you out.

Given his choice, Fred Couples said he’d rather start the last round tied or one shot ahead, and then changed his mind.

“Five ahead.”

And make it with one hole to play.

Playing from behind on the last day is probably a situation you’d like to avoid, unless of course you wind up winning, which is just the angle Quinney is trying to work today in the final round of the Northern Trust Open.

He hasn’t won a PGA Tour event in his brief career, so Quinney isn’t really experienced in the come-from-behind-to-win department.

Mickelson wasn’t especially sharp Saturday when he shot one-under-par 70 in the third round, and his lead is a single shot over Quinney, who picked up three strokes on Mickelson with a 67.

John Rollins is the only other player as close as five shots.

A one-shot lead is virtually nothing, so this is far from a done deal for Mickelson, although Scott Verplank teed it up for the left-hander.

“Other than Tiger, he’s probably the next best front-runner,” Verplank said. “He’s pretty good.”

Mickelson is good enough to win 18 of the 25 times he has had at least a share of the lead going into the final round. He’s 9-3 since the 2001 Hartford Open and was second the three times he didn’t convert -- the 2005 Doral, the 2006 U.S. Open at Winged Foot and last year at Riviera.

In the six PGA Tour events this season, half of the leaders going into the final round have won -- K.J. Choi at the Sony, Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines and J.B. Holmes at the FBR Open.

Three others didn’t -- Mike Weir at Kapalula, Justin Leonard at the Hope and Vijay Singh and Dudley Hart at Pebble Beach.

Couples shook his head at the numbers. He said he’s more of a feel guy.

“It’s a lot of useless info,” he said. “You could talk about it all day.

“If you’re asking me, if you’ve got Jeff Quinney and Phil Mickelson, then it’s easier for Phil Mickelson to come from behind and also easier for him to win with the lead.”

There is a certain mentality associated with being a front-runner. Woods probably is the best in that situation.

Woods has never lost a PGA Tour event with a lead of more than one shot after three rounds.

The biggest come-from-behind victory last year on the PGA Tour was when Padraig Harrington trailed Sergio Garcia by six shots at the British Open and then beat him in a playoff.

When he won the $7-million Barclays last year, the first of the four FedEx Cup playoffs, Steve Stricker held on to his one-shot lead after 54 holes. Stricker closed with a two-under 69 and defeated Choi by two shots.

The best advice Stricker can give is to get it going early.

“It focuses you, to play aggressively and make birdies.”

But you also have to be cautious.

“You don’t want to make any early mistakes.”

So here is really Stricker’s best advice: “Play aggressively smart.”

Sounds simple enough, but Mark Wilson, who trails Mickelson by seven, has even less complicated tactics. Wilson won his first tournament at last year’s Honda Classic, and he was clutch. He made a 47-foot putt to par the 16th hole on Sunday and a 30-footer for par to stay alive on the first playoff hole Monday.

Wilson’s message on coming from behind and winning: “Just play the best you can.”

And if it were that easy, nobody would mess up. There’s a chance that the occasionally swirling winds at Riviera may play some part in what happens today to Mickelson, Quinney or maybe even Rollins, Stuart Appleby, Vaughn Taylor and Verplank. The only thing for sure is that nobody’s going to be handed anything. The principals have agreed on that.

Mickelson’s 11-under total is two shots off his score last year, when he began the final round one shot ahead of Harrington and lost in a playoff to Charles Howell III. Tougher pin placements made Riviera more difficult Saturday, but Mickelson held a brief post-round cellphone conversation with swing coach Butch Harmon and that may help him today.

What can you do on the telephone?

“Talk,” Mickelson said.

Coming from behind or playing from ahead, keeping it simple always works.

thomas.bonk@latimes.com