Villaraigosa, Bratton expect crime to dip in 2009

Even as they touted another year of falling crime rates in Los Angeles and expressed confidence that 2009 could bring further declines, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Police Chief William J. Bratton said Monday that the LAPD’s success in the upcoming year is tied to the city’s financial picture.

Bratton, who has never been shy about promising drops in crime, stopped short of his tradition of setting a crime reduction target for the year, saying only that he was “very comfortable” that crime would continue to fall in 2009. His comments came at a year-in-review news conference held with the mayor and other law enforcement officials.

As reported last week in The Times, overall violent and property crime in Los Angeles fell 2.5% in 2008 compared with the year before, according to Los Angeles Police Department figures. The numbers continued the unbroken run of year-over-year declines since 2002, the year Bratton took the helm of the LAPD.

Bucking the trend in some of the country’s other major urban centers, the number of homicides in Los Angeles continued to fall to levels not seen since the 1960s. Last year, 381 people were killed -- 15 fewer than in 2007 and a nearly 40% drop from when Bratton took over. As in past years, property crimes, including burglary and car theft, were down less dramatically than violent crimes.

The LAPD fell short, however, of meeting the goal it had set at the start of last year to reduce crime by 5%. This year, Bratton said he was “backing away” from any such predictions until the city’s budget was finalized. With a shortfall of more than $430 million expected by July 1, he said the ability of the LAPD to push crime rates down further will depend on whether the mayor and City Council continue to spare the department from serious cutbacks.

Bratton wants to know that “the city remains committed to growing this police department,” Villaraigosa said. “I know where the crime occurs. I know who it is. It’s all those people who can’t afford their own security -- their security is the LAPD. Our effort to protect those citizens has to be our priority, and that need will have to be reflected in our budget. Once it is, we can talk about setting a goal.”

Bratton acknowledged that rising unemployment and the ongoing meltdown of the country’s economy could have an influence on the rate of property crimes. He reiterated his belief, however, that a well-funded and well-run police department can counter such factors.

Gang crimes, in particular, would continue to decline as the city better orchestrated prevention and intervention efforts, Bratton said, referring repeatedly to a new anti-gang strategy that the mayor plans to unveil later this month.

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joel.rubin@latimes.com