Passing fancy
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA — For one of the few times in its 80-year history, the World Cup has produced a final worthy of the sport itself. The Dutch and the Spanish play soccer the way it was intended to be played -- a passing game, a possession game, a game of the intellect and not simply a contest of physical skill, strength, speed and endurance. It might be slower-paced than some would like, but it should be far more interesting to watch as it unfolds. Chess, not checkers, that’s the difference. So how to choose between the Netherlands and Spain when Sunday’s final rolls around in Johannesburg’s Soccer City? One way is to compare the teams position by position, throw the coaches and the intangibles into the mix and then decide. There’s a 50% chance the winner would emerge from the permutations. So here goes:
GOALKEEPERS
The Spanish boast the world’s undisputed No. 1 in the nets in the form of Real Madrid standout Iker Casillas. He has proved again in this tournament why he is held in such high regard worldwide, and is in peak form. Always alert, Casillas has four shutouts in six World Cup games and has given up only two goals.
The Dutch have Maarten Stekelenburg of Ajax Amsterdam in goal. He has been solid, but unspectacular, giving up five goals in six games, and has two shutouts. Some Dutch media called for veteran Edwin van der Sar to be brought out of international retirement for the tournament, indicating a lack of faith in Stekelenburg.
Advantage: Spain.
DEFENDERS
The Dutch back line is rugged and physical, but as Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s 30-yard goal against Uruguay showed, it can produce goals as well as prevent them. John Heitinga, Gregory van der Weil and Andre Ooijer might be little known, but they know their job.
The Spanish back line matches its Dutch counterpart stride for stride, and as Carles Puyol’s headed goal against Germany showed, it too can produce goals as well as prevent them. Wingbacks Sergio Ramos and Joan Capdevila like to come forward. Gerard Pique is one of Europe’s fast-rising stars.
The Netherlands has scored 12 goals and given up five. Spain has scored seven goals and given up only two.
Advantage: Spain.
MIDFIELDERS
Spain has Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta. End of argument. The fact that it also has Xabi Alonso, Sergio Busquets, David Silva, Cesc Fabregas and others is just icing on an already overly rich cake.
The Netherlands has Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben. So maybe the argument is not over. The fact that it also has Dirk Kuyt, Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong means there is power there as well as skill.
Advantage: Even.
FORWARDS
Big-name forwards Robin van Persie of the Netherlands and Fernando Torres of Spain have been non-factors in South Africa. Picking up the slack for Spain has been David Villa, whose five goals have kept his team in the hunt. Picking up the slack for the Netherlands has been, well, no one, really. The goals have come from midfield and defense.
Advantage: Spain.
COACHES
Spain’s Vicente del Bosque is not easily flustered. His successful career as a player for Real Madrid was followed by a successful career as a coach for Real Madrid. He has the trophies to prove it. One of his most impressive World Cup tricks has been to get players from Real Madrid and Barcelona to play together and enjoy it.
Netherlands Coach Bert van Marwijk is a relative novice by comparison, despite the success he has enjoyed. Less well known and with fewer honors to his name, he has nonetheless built a Dutch team armed with both ability and self-belief. It is a disciplined side as well as a tactically sound one, with each player knowing his role.
Advantage: Even.
INTANGIBLES
The Dutch are on a record 25-game unbeaten run and have won 10 in a row. Does the law of probability mean they are due for a loss? The Spanish are European champions and acknowledged as the No. 1 team in the world. But this is Spain’s first World Cup final. Nerves could come into play. The Netherlands already has lost two finals, in 1974 and 1978. Few outside Spain would begrudge them if the third time proved lucky.
Referee Howard Webb of England could play a key role. If the Dutch get overly physical -- think hardnosed midfielder Van Bommel -- cards could come into play. If the Spanish react to provocation, the same applies. Webb’s ability to keep control of things will determine the nature of the game, if not its outcome.
Advantage: Netherlands
PREDICTION
Sailing against the wind, as the Dutch were once wont to do, the call here is for the Netherlands to win, 2-1, in a game for the ages. Well, let’s hope so anyway, because anything less than a classic would be a disappointment.
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Statistically speaking
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