Democrats have an edge with voters, Gallup poll shows

In their strongest showing in months, Democrats now have a slight edge over the GOP in Gallup’s weekly gauge of voters’ preference in the midterm congressional election.

Gallup interviewed 2,925 registered voters from Sept. 13 to 19. Of that sample, 46% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 45% who said they’d vote for the Republican. Last week the GOP had a 5 percentage point advantage, leading 48% to 43%. Just two weeks earlier they lead 51% to 41%, the first time in the history of Gallup’s polling that the Republicans had a 10 percentage point lead.

But Republican voters remain far more enthusiastic about voting this fall, a factor that could be crucial to determining whether the party can win enough seats to regain a majority in the House after four years in the minority. Forty-seven percent of Republicans said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, while only 28% of Democrats felt that way.

Explaining the shift in voter sentiment, Gallup noted that the pace of the campaign has begun to pick up, both in terms of activity on the ground and in media coverage. The polling window for this most recent survey includes last Tuesday’s primaries in seven states and the District of Columbia, which saw tea party-backed candidates score upsets in the Republican primary for Senate in Delaware and governor in New York.

Democrats had not led in the so-called generic ballot test since late July. Amid gloomy polling and economic data, party officials maintained that as the election drew closer and more people paid attention to the races, they would begin to narrow the gap.

Democratic strategists have sought to frame the election as a choice between the respective visions of each party. Speaking at an event for Democratic Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland in Dayton on Monday, Vice President Joe Biden urged Democrats to tell voters: “Don’t compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. The Republican tea party is the alternative.”

President Obama is also on the campaign trail today, speaking at an event in Philadelphia for Senate candidate Joe Sestak.

Republicans must win a net of 39 seats in the House of Representatives to reclaim a majority. This weekend, the National Republican Campaign Committee launched television ads in 12 congressional battlegrounds, the biggest buy of the cycle to date. All but one of the districts targeted are currently represented by Democrats.