Less pain at the pump for California drivers?

California drivers still pay more for gasoline than motorists in virtually every other state, but there are signs the pain at the pump won’t be quite as bad in the coming months.

The relatively low price of oil on global markets accounts for a large part of the relief, but Dave Hackett, president of Stillwater Associates, a transportation energy consulting company in Irvine, points to another reason specific to the Golden State — what he calls “the Torrance factor.”

“I think [California drivers] should be glad that Exxon Mobil was finally able to get their refinery running again,” Hackett said.

The Exxon Mobil refinery in Torrance went back into full operation Tuesday, a little more than a year after an explosion at the plant injured two people and prompted state regulators to fine the company more than half a million dollars for safety violations.

The Torrance plant generates 10% of the state’s refined gasoline capacity, and 20% of the capacity in Southern California.

Getting the Torrance facility back to full capacity is expected to put some downward pressure on gasoline prices across the state.

In the aftermath of the Torrance explosion, California suppliers went from exporting excess gasoline to importing it, Hackett said.

“Basically that means that gas had to come from refineries around the world — Europe and Asia,” Hackett said. “And it’s expensive to haul that gasoline all the way to California.”

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in California is $2.80 — 60 cents higher than the national average. Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration had the price differential at 56 cents.

In the months following the Torrance shutdown, the price difference between California and the national average neared $1 last year.

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But Hackett thinks the Torrance restart may eventually shrink the difference to about 45 cents a gallon.

The price break from the Torrance restart “will last as long as the refinery sector continues to operate normally,” Hackett said.

The price picture nationally looks pretty good too.

Even though oil prices have risen from a 13-year low of $26.05 a barrel in February to the mid-$40 range this week, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday it expects the nation’s drivers to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, when gas prices were below $2 a gallon.

The agency also projects that the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago.

The price of gasoline in California has risen just 3 cents a gallon compared with the previous month. The Los Angeles area average price of $2.84 is down about half a penny from a month earlier.

However, one year ago, the average price in L.A. was $3.85 a gallon.

Worldwide oil supplies remain well above average, which is keeping prices low.

U.S. oil producers may be in the process of cutting production in reaction to stubbornly low prices. But Saudi Arabia has not reduced production, and Iran, fresh from getting relier from international sanctions in connection with the nuclear arms deal, is furiously pumping oil to regain market share.

But given the inherent volatility of the oil business, the Energy Information Administration offered a caveat in its report Tuesday, saying: “The current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.”

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rob.nikowlewski@sduniontribune.com