Wall Street ticks higher after inflation data clears the way for cuts to rates

U.S. stocks ticked higher in a quiet Wednesday after the latest update on inflation came in almost exactly as economists expected.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.4% to follow up on one of its best days of the year and climb within 3.7% of its all-time high set last month. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.6% to finish a day above the 40,000 level for the first time in nearly two weeks. The Nasdaq composite edged up less than 0.1%.

Treasury yields were relatively steady in the bond market after the U.S. government said consumers paid prices that were 2.9% higher last month for gasoline, food, shelter and other things compared with a year earlier.

The data should keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut its main interest rate at its next meeting in September, a move that has been eagerly awaited by Wall Street. The Fed has been keeping rates at an economy-crunching level in hopes of stifling inflation that topped 9% two years ago. Lower interest rates would ease the pressure on both the economy and on prices for investments.

The only question is how big the first cut to rates since the 2020 COVID crash would be: the traditional quarter of a percentage point or a more dramatic half a point?

Wednesday’s reading on inflation at the consumer level wasn’t as cool as the prior day’s update on inflation at the wholesale level, but it probably doesn’t change much, according to Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.

If most of the data over the next few weeks point to a slowing economy, he said the Fed may cut more aggressively. That includes a report coming Thursday about how much U.S. shoppers spent at retailers.

Although the economy is still growing, and many economists see a recession as unlikely, worries have risen about its strength after a much worse-than-expected month of hiring by U.S. employers in July.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 3.83% from 3.85% late Tuesday. It’s been coming down since topping 4.70% in April, as expectations have built for coming cuts to interest rates.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, edged up to 3.95% from 3.94% late Tuesday, as traders weigh whether September’s anticipated cut would be the traditional or jumbo-sized move.

On Wall Street, Kellanova rose 7.8% after Mars said it would buy the company behind Pringles, Cheez-Its and Kellogg’s for $83.50 per share in cash. The companies put the deal’s total value at $35.9 billion, including debt. Kellanova was created when the Kellogg Co. split into three companies in the summer of 2022.

Cardinal Health rose 3.7% after joining the parade of companies that have reported stronger profit for the spring than analysts expected.

On the losing end was Brinker International, the company behind Chili’s and Maggiano’s Little Italy restaurants. It fell 10.7% after reporting weaker profit for the latest quarter than expected. That was despite strengthening sales trends at Chili’s, which got a boost from higher prices, increased traffic and the launch of its “Big Smasher” burger. Expectations were high coming into the report for Brinker International, whose stock is still up 45.6% for the year.

Starbucks fell 2.1% to give back some of its big gain from the prior day after it said it had lured Brian Niccol away from Chipotle Mexican Grill to become its chief executive.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 20.78 points to 5,455.21. The Dow gained 242.75 points to 40,008.39, and the Nasdaq composite rose 4.99 points to 17.192.60.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were modestly higher across much of Europe and mixed in Asia.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 has been the center of financial markets’ wildest action in recent weeks, and it rose 0.6% following a day of ups and downs. Japan’s embattled Prime Minister Fumio Kishida surprised the country Wednesday by announcing he’ll step down when his party picks a new leader next month.

Choe writes for the Associated Press.