Did California or Florida handle COVID-19 better? The answer is complicated

Good morning. It’s Tuesday, Nov. 28. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• Which state handled COVID better: California or Florida?
• Migrants struggle in San Diego’s open-air desert camps
• 18 ways to learn about plants while volunteering around L.A.
• And here’s today’s e-newspaper

Which state handled COVID better: California or Florida?

The Golden State and the Sunshine State have come to represent polar opposites: east vs. west, blue vs. red. Their rivalry will reach a new stage this week as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis prepare to debate on Fox News for a national audience.

Ahead of that political cage match, my colleagues Rong-Gong Lin II, Luke Money and Sean Greene decided to examine the contrast between the two states in terms of COVID-19.

In a subscriber exclusive story published this week, they unpacked years of data to see which state handled the historic health crisis better. California’s government, following the lead of public health officials, enacted a stay-at-home order, implemented mask mandates and later embraced vaccines. Florida leaders’ approach to the science was more nonchalant and, in some cases, defiant of national policy. Now that the pandemic’s emergency phase has ended, how do Florida and California stack up?

The death toll is stark — but not a complete picture

In terms of the proportion of lives lost to the virus, the data show many more people in Florida died from COVID-19 compared to Californians.

According to a Times analysis of Johns Hopkins University data through early March, California had the lowest cumulative COVID death rate among the four most populous states:

• California: 2,560 COVID deaths for every 1 million residents
• Florida: 4,044 COVID deaths for every 1 million residents

“In other words, Florida’s raw death tally — 86,850 in early March — came close to California’s total, 101,159, despite California having roughly 18 million more residents,” Rong-Gong, Luke and Sean noted.

But raw figures don’t tell the whole story. When adjusted for age, the mortality rate gap between the two states narrowed, according to one estimate. Another estimate factored in Florida’s larger share of “unhealthy” residents and found that Florida then ranked better than California. One analysis published in The Lancet earlier this year found California had a 34% worse death rate when adjusting for age and health factors — like obesity and diabetes — among both states’ populations.

A more granular understanding of the spread of COVID — not just the death toll — in both states paints a much more nuanced picture, which is important, since the two states have some key differences, namely in population age and housing density.

California’s overcrowded housing enabled more COVID transmission. That was particularly true in Los Angeles County, home to roughly a quarter of the state’s total population. And as my colleagues explained, Florida’s larger share of older residents actually might have helped keep transmissions low in the early phase before vaccines were available.

“Many of Florida’s seniors may have strictly avoided gatherings during that first winter while younger, restriction-weary Californians could have been more apt to travel, socialize and potentially pass the virus to more vulnerable family members,” they wrote.

What about vaccination rates?

Though DeSantis initially applauded his state’s high vaccination rates for seniors, he later adopted much more skeptical messaging about inoculation. Younger Floridians didn’t get their primary vaccination series at the same rates younger Californians did — just 43% compared with 54% by mid-June 2021, respectively. At the peak of the Delta wave in summer 2021, the share of Florida residents under 65 who died from COVID-19 doubled.

And the share of older Florida residents who kept up-to-date on boosters has fallen off.

“As of early May, 48% of California’s seniors had received an updated booster formulated specifically to combat Omicron, compared with 31% of Florida’s seniors,” Rong-Gong, Luke and Sean reported.

So how do health experts feel about comparing the responses and data between the two states?

Rong-Gong, Luke and Sean asked Dr. Robert Wachter, chair of the Department of Medicine at UC San Francisco, who felt California followed the scientific evidence “better than many other states, including Florida” from the start, which kept Californians safer.

“When you looked at the early curves of death rates, it was substantially lower in California than in many other states,” Wachter told them. “I think a lot of lives were saved at that stage.”

You can read more of Rong-Gong, Luke and Sean’s reporting in their Times subscriber exclusive.

Today’s top stories

Asylum seekers from China camp near the U.S.-Mexico border wall in Jacumba Hot Springs, Calif.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

• Jacumba Hot Springs in remote San Diego County has become a hot spot for illegal border crossings, transforming the desert terrain into open-air holding camps for migrants. Volunteers have stepped in to help them survive.

War in the Middle East

• Palestinians in the Gaza Strip take note of their losses and stock up on water, food, fuel and other essentials during a pause in fighting.
• A California family celebrates relatives’ release by Hamas.

Vermont shooting

• A man was arrested in connection with the shooting of three college students of Palestinian descent.
• The shooting is being investigated as a hate crime.

More big stories

• Nearly 3 million people boarded flights in the U.S. on Sunday as American air travel continued to surge at a record pace, surpassing pre-pandemic numbers, according to Transportation Security Administration statistics.
• L.A. Airbnb operators would need a police permit under a proposed law.
• USC and graduate students union reach a tentative pact with big pay boosts and bias protections.
• A century-old stone Catholic mission is vandalized and ransacked in Irwindale.
• L.A. prop houses are preparing for a return to business after the end of dual Hollywood strikes that shut down production.
• The production company behind “F9” has been fined about $1 million after a stunt performer was severely injured in an accident on the set of the Universal Pictures action film.
• While many families spent Thanksgiving watching football in their living rooms, a few spent it watching killer whales punt a sea lion 20 feet into the air in Monterey Bay.
• The National Park Service wants to plant sequoias. Environmentalists sue, say there’s no need to butt in.
• Speech is freer in California than in Florida, a watchdog warns ahead of the Newsom-DeSantis debate.

Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here.

Commentary and opinion

• George Skelton: There’s too much hatred in politics. Arnold Schwarzenegger shows the value of an upbeat attitude.
• Editorial: L.A. needs a better plan to crack down on illegal Airbnbs and short-term rentals.
• Opinion: I stayed off social media for just one week and rediscovered awe.
• Opinion: My Palestinian parents were made refugees in 1948. This is what they taught me more than 60 years ago.
• Editorial: On climate change, world leaders are saying one thing and doing another.
• Opinion: Here are seven ways the U.S. can push Israel toward a cease-fire in Gaza.

Today’s great reads

(Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times)

What one man’s castle in Scotland says about L.A.’s homelessness crisis. Scotland has what some California politicians and advocates have long sought: a legal right to housing. Because of that policy, the local government there must act quickly to ensure that people at risk of becoming homeless find a temporary place to stay — even if that place happens to look like a Harry Potter stage set.

Other great reads

• Fierce, ferocious and focused — Penélope Cruz is the beating heart of “Ferrari.”
• Wonder why you get red-wine headaches? This new study might explain the “centuries-old mystery.”
• Inside a heavily armed militia of senior citizens who are willing to fight for South Korea.
• The Mexican artistic swimming team made history and is heading to the 2024 Summer Olympics.
• Like his Oscar, Ke Huy Quan’s “Loki” role was a dream come true: “It puts a big smile on my face.”

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.

For your downtime

Carmel River State Beach.

(Christopher Reynolds / Los Angeles Times)

Going out

• 🏄 How to get the best of gorgeous, pricey, artsy Carmel.
• 🪴 18 ways to learn about plants while volunteering around L.A.
• 🍇🍷 Tourism is booming in Baja’s wine country. Can the grapes survive it?
• 🥾 It’s getting dark pretty early. Here’s how to stay active outdoors during Pacific Standard Time.

Staying in

• 📕 The author of “The Iron Wall” sees a “sinister” precedent behind Israel’s actions in Gaza.
• 👑 “The Crown” brings the story of the royal family — and Princess Diana — to a close.
• 🧅🥔 Here’s a recipe for pezzetti fritti (mixed fried vegetables).
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

And finally ... a great photo

Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they’re important to you.

Sunrise colors west of La Quinta, Calif., looking toward the aptly named Santa Rosa Mountains.

(Michael Cartabiano)

Today’s great photo is from Michael Cartabiano of Carlsbad: Santa Rosa Mountains. Michael writes:

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Elvia Limón, multiplatform editor
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Laura Blasey, assistant editor

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