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California’s stunning snow drought turnaround, in three charts

Clouds and the Sierra crest are reflected in the Owens River.
Clouds and the Sierra crest are reflected in the Owens River at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power’s Pumpback Station on Feb. 14 in Lone Pine, Calif.
(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
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Good morning. It’s Friday, Feb. 23. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

California’s once-feared “snow drought” has faded

At the beginning of the year, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada was 28% of normal. The mountain range, which provides roughly 30% of the state’s water supplies on average, was getting some rain. But warmer conditions meant it wasn’t turning to snow at higher elevations.

If California’s “snow drought” persisted further into winter, state water experts feared less water would melt off the mountains and flow into reservoirs just when it’s needed most.

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But what a difference a rainy month makes. After getting through the bad kind of dry January, a series of storms in recent weeks have eased those concerns — though snowpack is still slightly below average.

These charts from Times assistant data and graphics editor Sean Greene show how much the recent rounds of atmospheric rivers have helped.

The snowpack measured Feb. 21 was at 86% of average for that date. The biggest benchmark is coming up on April 1, which marks the end of the wet season when snowpack typically hits its peak in the peaks. 🏔️

As Times reporter Ian James noted, “how close the state comes to an average snowpack will depend on conditions over the next five weeks.”

Although the snowpack is a bit below average, as of Feb. 21, California has received more rain than average this water year, which ends Sept. 31.

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Part of that discrepancy stems from the warmer temperatures caused in part by this year’s El Niño pattern, but as Ian explained, that’s not the only factor:

“Rising temperatures driven by human-caused climate change have led to declines in the average snowpack in the western United States in recent decades. Research has shown that average snowlines have been creeping higher with warming temperatures as more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow.”

And SoCal has been exceptionally doused this year. UCLA climate scientist Alex Hall told Ian the region has received “roughly 125% of what we normally get in the whole water year. And the wet season isn’t over yet.”

A downside to so much rain in the L.A. Basin and other parts of the state is that most of that water ends up in the ocean instead of being captured and stored for local use.

Still, recent storms have put California’s reservoirs in a better position with the dry season approaching. Our major reservoirs are still at 118% of their average levels, thanks in large part to the previous banner water year.

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Statewide, reservoirs are almost at 75% capacity. That means more water is available for cities and agriculture this year.

While our rainy season has been notably wet for a second year, how state and local water managers respond to the abundance will determine how well California weathers the next drought — which will come.

“We need to be accelerating and expanding conservation and efficiency policies,” hydroclimatologist Peter Gleick told me last year. “It’s precisely in the wet years, when we have a little breathing room, that we ought to be doing more to prepare for the dry years that we know are increasingly frequent.”

Today’s top stories

Rebecca Grossman, center, her husband, Dr. Peter Grossman, left, and her daughter head to Van Nuys Courthouse West
Rebecca Grossman, center, her husband, Dr. Peter Grossman, left, and her daughter head to Van Nuys Courthouse West.
(Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)

Rebecca Grossman trial

Crime and courts

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Commentary and opinions

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How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.

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For your downtime

Saturday Stairs runners work out on the stairs at the Hollywood Bowl
Saturday Stairs runners work out on the stairs at the Hollywood Bowl.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)

Going out

Staying in

And finally ... a great photo

Show us your favorite place in California! We’re running low on submissions. Send us photos that scream California and we may feature them in an edition of Essential California.

A man and woman stand inside a 380-square-foot residence in the Larchmont neighborhood of Los Angeles
Actress Leslie-Anne Huff, right and her husband, Reggie Panaligan, stand inside their 380-square-foot ADU in the Larchmont neighborhood of Los Angeles.
(Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times photographer Jay L. Clendenin at the home of actress Leslie-Anne Huff and Reggie Panaligan. Los Angeles architect Lisa Little designed a trapezoid-shaped, 380-square-foot ADU with an asymmetrical butterfly roof.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

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Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor

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