Drastically reduced emissions by 2030? New report says don’t hold your breath

Good morning. It’s Monday, March 18. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• California is falling behind on emission reduction goals, a new report says.
• More than 25,000 runners took part in the 39th Los Angeles Marathon.
• Coveted tee times at L.A.‘s municipal golf courses are being bought up by brokers.
• And here’s today’s e-newspaper

Can California hit emissions goals by 2030? A new report casts doubt

California’s goal was ambitious: The state vowed to reduce, by 2030, greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared with 1990’s levels.

But according to a new report, the rate at which emissions are being reduced has put us more than 15 years behind schedule. The authors of the latest California Green Innovation Index now project we won’t hit our reduction goal until 2047.

Researchers with the nonprofit group Next 10 and consulting group Beacon Economics analyzed emissions data from 2021 — the most recent year provided by the state. Since 2010, emissions have dipped just 11.5% below those of 1990, the report states.

“California has long been a leader in emissions control,” Times investigative reporter Melody Petersen wrote. “The new report has faced pushback from state officials who say they are much further along in hitting the goals than the report authors believe.”

A pandemic dip, then a rebound

You might remember how clean the air looked and felt around this time four years ago. We drove a lot less during 2020’s stay-at-home orders, leading to a notable drop in emissions.

But those reductions were short-lived. The analysis found the state’s carbon emissions increased by 3.4% the next year, driven by more people getting back in their cars and fewer people taking public transit.

Some of the increase was also partly attributed to the state’s drought conditions in 2021. Hydropower generated less electricity, leading to a greater reliance on natural-gas-fueled power plants.

“Efforts to promote renewable power as well as zero-emission buildings and vehicles will have to dramatically accelerate in order to achieve the state’s goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030,” authors wrote in the report’s key findings.

State officials push back

Liane Randolph, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board, contests the study’s findings, telling Melody the state remains on track for hitting its goals.

Melody also notes this isn’t the only report that’s been critical of California’s progress.

The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office published a report last year that estimated that emissions had been falling an average of about 1% a year over the last decade and would need to fall 4% annually. The authors also called out the Air Resources Board, saying members lacked “a clear strategy” to achieve the 2030 goal.

California has hit some other targets, Melody explained:

So, depending on whom you ask, we’re on track or about 17 years behind. But there seems to be agreement that it will take an incredibly ambitious and sustained effort to eventually reach that goal.

Noel Perry, founder of Next 10, told Melody there are “substantial obstacles” to ramping up California’s decarbonization efforts.

“These are not insurmountable,” Perry said, “but we need to act urgently.”

You can read more of Melody’s reporting here.

Today’s top stories

The Los Angeles Marathon gets underway Sunday morning at Dodger Stadium.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

L.A. Marathon

• The 39th Los Angeles Marathon fell on St. Patrick’s Day this year. Elite Kenyan runners won both the men’s and women’s competitions.
• Here’s a list of the top finishers’ times.
• Times photographers were stationed all around the marathon’s 26.2-mile course. Check out some of their photos from Sunday’s iconic route.

Crime and public safety

• An L.A. County sheriff’s deputy shot and killed a man in East L.A. on Saturday night. Department officials said a replica firearm was recovered at the scene.
• A massive brawl broke out near Pike Outlets in Long Beach, leading to two arrests.
• A police chase ended in the Pacific Ocean late Saturday night when a woman drove her car into the surf at Venice Beach. Two Boston terriers were in the backseat but were rescued, and the woman was taken into custody.

Elections and politics

• A Central Valley politician was charged with voter fraud. Then right-wing conspiracies took over.
• One far-right leader is ousted. Another barely hangs on. Is Shasta rejecting MAGA politics?
• With L.A.’s Olympic Games now four years away, local leaders are taking notes on how Paris handles its 2024 hosting duties.

More big stories

• As hungry bears awaken from hibernation, a California mountain village braces for invasion.
• LAX traffic is bad on a good day. But construction delays led to lane closures over the weekend, bringing even more nightmarish congestion. The delays, in an interesting coincidence, are related to the ongoing Automated People Mover project, which aims to create a transit connection to relieve LAX traffic.

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Commentary and opinions

• Times editorial board: What’s behind California’s high gas prices? Don’t trust the oil industry for answers.
• Doyle McManus: Trump has big plans for California if he wins a second term. Fasten your seatbelts.
• Robin Abcarian: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos and iPhones are ruining my kid and yours.
• Times editorial board: Why it’s smart for universities to bring back the SAT requirement.
• Jackie Calmes: One Trump puppet stands between Ukraine and the aid it needs.
• Bill Plaschke: With USC and UCLA leading the way, women’s tourney slam dunks on the men.

Today’s great reads

A golfer watches as his group putts at the 18th hole at L.A.’s Wilson Golf Course on Friday.

(Carlin Stiehl / Los Angeles Times)

Brokers are buying up precious tee times at L.A. city golf courses. Golfers are desperate and outraged. Golfers in L.A. had their suspicions about why it was so hard to secure a tee time at city golf courses. As Times reporter Matt Hamilton and reporting fellow Ashley Ahn revealed in their new story, tee times are being snapped up by brokers who then turn around and sell them (plus a fee) through a Korean messaging app.

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.

For your downtime

Posters created for The Times pay homage to Shohei Ohtani.

(Amy Matsushita-Beal / For The Times)

Going out

• 🦖 Explore the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County (free entry to L.A. County residents between 3 and 5 p.m.)
• 🥚 Grab a makeshift sandwich and some pickled eggs at this 100-year-old dive bar in Long Beach.
• 🧑‍🌾 Celebrate one of California’s homegrown heroes at the Knott’s Boysenberry Festival.

Staying in

• ⚾ Scroll through these awesome posters of Shohei Ohtani, created by artists for The Times.
• 🧑‍🍳 Here’s a recipe for Baja baby scallops ceviche.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

And finally ... a great photo

Show us your favorite place in California! We’re running low on submissions. Send us photos that scream California and we may feature them in an edition of Essential California.

A sunset view from Soberanes Point, in Garrapata State Park south of Carmel.

(Rick LeFlore)

Today’s great photo is from Rick LeFlore of Davis: Soberanes Point in Garrapata State Park. Rick writes:

“Soberanes Point affords relatively easily obtained breathtaking views of the Big Sur coast and Monterey Bay Marine Sanctuary. Sea otters and gray whales (seasonally) may be seen just offshore, while the volcanic remnant Point Sur, topped by Point Sur Lighthouse, rounds out the view to the south. Glorious sunset watching is the perfect end to a day trip in this ‘only in California’ setting.”

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Amy Hubbard, deputy editor, Fast Break

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