Column: Newsom's power this election is at home, not away

By George SkeltonCapitol Journal Columnist

Sept. 2, 2024 3 AM PT

SACRAMENTO —

Gov. Gavin Newsom should now narrow his focus from national politics to pivotal races in his own backyard.

Here’s an important politician who’s suddenly without an important political gig in this extraordinarily important election season. But he could find a significant gig right here in California.

A few California congressional races will help determine which party controls the next U.S. House of Representatives. And Newsom could help Democrats win back the House, now under razor-thin Republican control.

But Newsom would need to lower his sights from being a high-profile national player to playing the role of a home-state fighter for his party.

Newsom already has been taken out of national play anyway — by Vice President Kamala Harris and by the governor himself at the Democratic National Convention.

Harris’ lightning-fast ascendency to the Democratic presidential nomination after President Biden’s withdrawal bumped Newsom out of White House contention until at least 2028, and most likely forever.

If Harris beats Republican Donald Trump in November, she’ll run for reelection in 2028 and Newsom wouldn’t contest her in the primaries. By 2032, he’ll be 64 — still young compared to Biden and Trump currently — but there will be lots of younger presidential wannabes lining up and Newsom will have been out of elective office for six years.

If Harris loses to Trump, Newsom could run in 2028. But there will be plenty of other contenders — including potentially Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom Harris elevated to national prominence by choosing him as her running mate.

I’ve never been convinced Newsom really wants to run for president anyway — that deep down he has the proverbial “fire in the belly.”

I figure he merely wants to be considered presidential material and be mentioned prominently in the national media as a potential candidate. And be seen as a player on national policies. It upgrades his status.

That was confirmed for me when Newsom passed up a coveted invitation to speak on opening night at the convention. The governor said his flight from California arrived too late after he participated in a school orientation for his kids.

Really? A back-to-school event is a higher priority than a nationally televised convention speech if you harbor presidential ambitions? Hard to believe. And given his longtime alliance with Harris, Newsom couldn’t arrange for another speaking slot?

I suspect Newsom didn’t speak because it’s difficult for him to read off teleprompters. And at national conventions, the standard bearer’s team ordinarily insists on reviewing a speaker’s text beforehand and demands strict adherence to the written script.

“He hates giving speeches,” a top Newsom aide once told me. “It’s anxiety-producing.”

That’s because of the dyslexia Newsom has struggled with all his life. He must repeatedly rehearse speech deliveries.

In fact, Newsom has stopped giving annual State of the State addresses to a joint session of the Legislature — usually citing some concocted excuse, but really because of his difficulty with speech-reading.

Too bad, because he’s an excellent ad libber.

At any rate, roughly 10 other governors took advantage of their convention opportunities and gained national attention by giving televised speeches. They included several presumed presidential aspirants who gained a step on Newsom.

Harris seems unlikely to give Newsom the attention-getting national surrogate role he enjoyed when Biden was running. Harris and Newsom are both San Francisco liberals — the species that makes moderate voters in swing states naturally suspicious. She doesn’t need another left coast lib out there promoting her candidacy.

“People in the other states don’t like us,” says former Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “Not only is she from California, she’s from the Bay Area. There’s no purpose to be served for her by putting a yellow highlighter on that. I wouldn’t put him on the road.”

But there are some hotly contested congressional races in California where he could boost the Democrat.

“He can absolutely help raise money for those campaigns,” says Sragow, who until recently was publisher of the California Target Book, which monitors state legislative and congressional races.

But Sragow added, “if I was running one of the Democratic campaigns, it’s not clear to me that we would want to invite the governor to show up” at a rally. “I don’t know that it would help.”

That’s because in most of the House districts with competitive races, Newsom lost in his 2022 reelection race to Republican Brian Dahle, a little-known rural state senator. So, Newsom might not have much influence with Republicans and independents. And most of these districts have an unusually large number of GOP voters.

“If he wanted to help,” Sragow says, “he could do it in a very targeted way intended to boost Democratic turnout. That would be a good use of his time and resources. But he has to stay within the Democratic family.”

Of 10 races generally considered to be competitive, seven are currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats. Most are in Southern California, but three are in the San Joaquin Valley.

Governors don’t ordinarily focus on congressional contests. Candidates run on federal issues, not state matters. But there’s lots of overlap. And Newsom has been stumping the nation on federal issues while enhancing his national profile.

By pitching in locally as a team player and helping Democrats win back the House, Newsom could earn national party chits if he ever does actually run for president.

Meanwhile, he’d have more time to do his day job in Sacramento. There’s plenty piled up for him to do.