Prop. 36 drug and theft felonies to force millions in state cuts, projection shows
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SACRAMENTO — After last year’s passage of Proposition 36 — a ballot measure that allows more theft and drug crimes to be charged as felonies — some opponents warned it would trigger steep funding cuts to both reentry programs that help state prisoners and services for crime victims.
But a new spending plan from the governor’s office for the upcoming fiscal year projects a relatively minimal impact to key programs — at least initially.
Today, it costs $133,000 a year to incarcerate a person in California, a figure that has gone up dramatically in recent years. When voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014, fewer people were serving prison time for low-level, nonviolent theft and drug crimes, and as a result, the state saved more than $100 million a year. Those savings were distributed to counties for prisoner reentry and victim support — the same programs now on the chopping block.
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The passage of Proposition 36 — a sweeping overhaul of Proposition 47 — has been projected to lengthen prison sentences, and, consequentially, money for programs the older measure created is expected to dwindle.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed budget calls for $88 million allocated to mental health and reentry programs for victims and former prisoners this fiscal year, according to records reviewed by The Times. That figure is $6 million less than the governor’s office initially projected last year.
Proposition 36, which took effect in December, received overwhelming voter support despite warnings from opponents that it would reignite mass incarceration that began in the 1980s as the government declared a war on drugs.
While some counties have already begun prosecuting more theft and drug cases as felonies rather than misdemeanors under Proposition 36, experts and advocates believe the long-term effects won’t be felt for at least a year.
The governor’s projection shows that money previously saved under Proposition 47’s reduced burden on the prison system might shrink to $24 million by the 2026-27 fiscal year — the result of an estimated 2,700 inmates coming into state custody under the stiff new penalties.
Those figures by the governor’s office show a much larger slashing of state savings than nonpartisan legislative analysts, who projected before the election that programs would be cut by “the low tens of millions of dollars annually.”
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Caitlin O’Neil, a representative from the legislative analyst’s office, said the full extent of the new law’s impact remains difficult to gauge since Proposition 36 is only a month into implementation.
“The administration appears to be currently projecting a somewhat larger reduction,” O’Neil said in an email to The Times. “Any projections at this time will likely be subject to significant uncertainty due to the limited amount of actual data. Additionally, the projections are normally revised by the administration in May.”
The Chief Executive Office of Los Angeles County similarly told The Times that the county is in the early stages of the annual budget process and “it is far too soon to tell what the impacts will be.”
Tinisch Hollins, the executive director of Californians for Safety and Justice who opposed Proposition 36, said she is “deeply concerned” the measure will “erode” crime prevention programs for years to come.
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That sentiment was echoed by Isa Borgeson, campaign manager at the Ella Baker Center for Human Rights.
“We knew Prop. 36 would strip funding for critical programs, and we’re already seeing it play out,” said Borgeson. “California is on track to locking more of our neighbors up for low-level drug and theft crimes, and we’ll be stripping money for those same people to get back on their feet or avoid the criminal legal system to begin with.”
Newsom’s office estimates that despite sentences now becoming longer for some crimes, other reforms enacted by the state in recent years will still lead to overall declines in the prison population.
“Even with the expected increase from Proposition 36,” the budget states, “the population is still projected to continue its overall long-term downward trend.”
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