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2025 Emmy predictions: best actor, limited series/TV movie

Buzzmeter Limited Series Actor
(Illustration by Lesley Busby / Los Angeles Times; photos from Apple; Max; Netflix)

Colin Farrell, having already collected pretty much all the major awards for disappearing into “The Penguin,” remains the frontrunner here — though “Adolescence” co-creator, writer and star Stephen Graham is right behind the Bat-nemesis.

“While Colin Farrell is the favorite in this category, Stephen Graham could easily make the upset, in my opinion, as ‘Adolescence’ continues to get stronger,” says trend-watching Trey Mangum.

“Stephen Graham’s performance as [a] devastated father … is a no-brainer” to be nominated, says Lorraine Ali. The veteran English actor, best known in America for thug roles including Al Capone in “Boardwalk Empire,” turns in heartbreakingly complex work as a parent trying to cope with the impossible. “Maybe it’s time to start the Stephen Graham bandwagon,” posits Glenn Whipp.

“Dope Thief’s” Brian Tyree Henry also gets plenty of support from the panelists, with more than one calling his work “fantastic” and Tracy Brown saying he’s “overdue for some Emmys love.”

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1. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
2. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
3. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
4. Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
5. Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
6. Aaron Pierre, “Rebel Ridge”
7. Robert De Niro, “Zero Day”
8. Gael García Bernal, “La Máquina”

More predictions: Limited / TV movie actress | Limited series

line drawing of a woman

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
2. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
3. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
4. (tie) Robert De Niro, “Zero Day”
4. (tie) Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”

“Stephen Graham’s performance as the devastated father of a young teen who commits murder is a no-brainer. Harder to say is whether Brian Tyree Henry’s excellent performance in ‘Dope Thief’ will advance in a category packed with big names like Colin Farrell (‘The Penguin’) Robert De Niro (‘Zero Day’) and Jake Gyllenhaal (‘Presumed Innocent’).”

Entertainment Weekly

Kristen Baldwin

1. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
2. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
3. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
4. Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
5. Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”

“Though ‘Dope Thief’ was uneven, Brian Tyree Henry’s performance as a small-time crook who ends up on the bad side of a very dangerous cartel was consistently fantastic.”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
2. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
3. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
4. Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
5. Gael García Bernal, “La Máquina”

“Colin Farrell is among the frontrunners for his turn as the eponymous kingpin on the rise in ‘The Penguin,’ along with ‘Adolescence’ co-creator and star Stephen Graham. The always-fantastic Brian Tyree Henry is also overdue for some Emmys love for his scene-stealing turn as a scam artist who gets in over his head in ‘Dope Thief.’”

Shadow and Act

Trey Mangum

1. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
2. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
3. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
4. Aaron Pierre, “Rebel Ridge”
5. Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”

“While Colin Farrell is the favorite in this category, Stephen Graham could easily make the upset, in my opinion, as ‘Adolescence’ continues to get stronger. Also, it is hard to believe that Brian Tyree Henry went winless while he was on ‘Atlanta.’ Could a ‘Dope Thief’ surprise happen?”

TV Guide

Matt Roush

1. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
2. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
3. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
4. Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
5. Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”

“Buried under prosthetics, yet commanding the screen, Colin Farrell as ‘The Penguin’ looks like the performance to beat, although Stephen Graham as the grieving dad in ‘Adolescence’ and Brian Tyree Henry’s desperate ‘Dope Thief’ are also worthy. Could a newbie like Cooper Koch squeeze out Robert De Niro? Probably.”

line drawing of a man on a yellow circle

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
2. Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
3. Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
4. Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
5. Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”

“Doesn’t it feel like Colin Farrell already won the Emmy for his entertaining turn in ‘The Penguin’? No? That was the Golden Globes. And the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Maybe it’s time to start the Stephen Graham bandwagon.”

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