A kind of, sort of ‘normal’ box office summer for moviegoers. Whatever that means anymore

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Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, the business of moviegoing is looking at an almost, kind of, sort of normal summer box office.

The key movie season could hit the $4-billion benchmark this year in the U.S. and Canada, compared to the $3.4 billion generated last summer, according to Comscore. Such a result would be another positive step for an industry still on the mend, though still not quite representing a full recovery.

As ever, analysts will judge the movies themselves on a case-by-case basis — with the usual princes and paupers.

The season started with the strong performance of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” grossing $267 million domestically so far, after the previous entry topped out at $390 million. “Fast X” met pre-release expectations with a $67.5-million opening weekend in the States, though it has a long way to go to reach profitability, given its massive production budget.

Last year, cinema owners suffered from a lack of movies, a lingering consequence of pandemic-related production delays. The coming months will be more similar to the pre-COVID times, with two or three significant movies — and in the case of Memorial Day, five titles — coming to theaters per weekend.

I spoke with David Herrin, founder and chief executive of tracking firm the Quorum, to get a handle on some of the major box office narratives shaping up for the summer, which typically represents 40% of theater operators’ full-year revenue.

A five-way showdown

This coming holiday weekend is going to be remarkably crowded at multiplexes, with four films going up against Disney’s remake of “The Little Mermaid.”

On one hand, that’s terrific news for theater owners who rely on a diverse slate from the studios. After last year’s movie drought, they’re certainly not going to complain when it starts raining. But it may not be so good for the movies themselves.

Having that much counterprogramming alongside the female-skewing family movie feels like overkill, especially when the alternatives are largely going after adult male audiences. Gerard Butler’s “Kandahar,” Robert De Niro’s “About My Father” and Bert Kreischer’s “The Machine” are coming out on the same day.

The other entry is Nicole Holofcener‘s critically acclaimed A24 comedy-drama “You Hurt My Feelings,” starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tobias Menzies, which was one of the most exciting debuts from Sundance.

“It’s a little silly,” Herrin said. “You’ve got Memorial Day with five releases, and then two weeks later you’ve got ‘Transformers: Rise of the Beasts’ essentially opening by itself.”

The tent poles

Speaking of “Transformers,” some of the reliable franchises returning this year are truly getting on in years.

We just got a 10th “Fast & Furious.” Harrison Ford is coming back in Disney’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.” “Mission: Impossible” is in for its long-awaited “Dead Reckoning Part One.” Spider-Man is returning to his animated “Spider-Verse.”

Interest levels are encouraging for the most the big studio titles based on well-known intellectual property, according to the Quorum’s audience survey data. “Having another ‘Mission: Impossible’ in the marketplace feels kind of like a warm blanket,” Herrin said.

Not all will succeed, and some tent poles look downright risky, such as DC’s “Blue Beetle,” based on a fairly obscure comic book character. And while the smorgasbord of cinematic comfort food isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the business, Hollywood needs fresh material to pop with audiences too.

Barbie vs. Oppie

That hunger for the new is where the upcoming battle between Christopher Nolan and Greta Gerwig gets interesting. Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” (Universal) and Gerwig’s “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) arrive July 21. And while both have their specific appeal among movie fans, the early audience data is mixed, according to Herrin.

The two films face opposite challenges when it comes to expanding their audiences.

“Barbie,” with its naturally female-leaning market, has high moviegoer awareness but not terribly robust interest so far, according to the Quorum. On the other side, “Oppenheimer’s” awareness is lacking, but its interest levels are about as high as “Barbie’s.”

It’s still nearly two months before opening weekend, so both films have a chance to connect with their marketing. Warner Bros. hasn’t really shown much of what “Barbie” is going to be in terms of plot. “Oppenheimer” has the typical Nolan mystique around it. For now, though, according to Herrin, it looks like it could be a dead-heat race.

A comedy comeback?

Audiences say they want more comedies in theaters. But do they?

We’re about to find out, as studios release a number of summer laughers after mostly holding back on the genre last year, with offerings such as “No Hard Feelings” with Jennifer Lawrence, the Tim Story-directed horror-comedy “The Blackening” and Adele Lim’s “Joy Ride.” None look like obvious break-out hits based on data so far, Herrin said.

“It’s really hard to make sense of that disconnect, where audiences say they want more comedies, and then we give them, and they’re still not showing that level of interest,” Herrin. “And I think it’s really tough for the industry to crack.”

As always, it’s going to come down to the movies themselves, and whether or not they look funny enough to justify a trip to the theater. “Bros” didn’t get there last year. Maybe Universal’s foulmouthed dog movie “Strays” will do the trick.

The family element

Disney CEO Bob Iger opened his latest earnings call by praising Universal for putting up huge numbers from “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.” Can Disney stage an animated return-to-form with Pixar’s “Elemental”?

“Super Mario” proved again that people will turn out for kids’ movies, but it benefited from months of no other animated films being released theatrically and being inspired by one of the biggest video game franchises ever.

Creatively, “Elemental” feels of a piece with Disney movies like “Zootopia” — high-concept and original, but certainly more abstract than the Nintendo game adaptation.

Rather, Herrin is betting on a late-summer family breakout winner, with the August release of Paramount’s “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.” “We’re seeing a real groundswell of support for that movie,” Herrin said.

Stuff we wrote

— Ex-NFL player thought ‘Shark Tank’ would launch his barbecue empire. It became a nightmare, he says. Restaurateur Al “Bubba” Baker, who was a contestant on the long-running ABC series, claims that he was mistreated by mogul Daymond John, one of the show’s “sharks.”

— ‘Vanderpump Rules’ star Lala Kent on life after Randall Emmett. Determined not to let the “Randall Scandal” define her, the reality TV star was the first person to smell trouble with the show’s now infamous “Scandoval.”

— Shea Serrano: What it’s like to have your TV show come out during the writers’ strike. In a guest column, the first-time showrunner and creator of Amazon Freevee’s “Primo” says writers are asking for reasonable accommodations that help make writing a viable career path.

— CNN’s Kaitlan Collins headed to prime time after Trump town hall. Kaitlan Collins, who moderated CNN’s May 10 town hall with former President Trump, will leave her morning show and start appearing in the 9 p.m. Eastern hour next month.

— One of L.A.’s last family-owned cinemas is in limbo. Its fans aren’t ready to give up. The single-screen Gardena Cinema hasn’t changed much since the Kim family bought it in 1976. When the owners met hard times, the community responded to their call.

— ICYMI. Disneyland says renovation plans could bring $253 million annually to Anaheim’s economy. Priscilla Presley agrees to settlement in dispute over Lisa Marie Presley estate.

Strike updates

— How the writers’ strike will shake up the fall TV schedule — and your viewing habits.
The work stoppage by the WGA will put scripted shows on hold, but the networks still have to sell ad time for the fall. How much will it hurt?

— As the writers’ strike lingers, TV showrunners are opting out of publicity for their work. In an effort to increase the pressure on studios to come to an agreement with the Writers Guild of America, some showrunners have chosen to stop publicity work for their series.

— SAG-AFTRA seeks strike authorization even before talks with studios begin. The move increases pressure on the major studios, which are in the midst of a standoff with Hollywood writers, who went on strike May 2.

— David Zaslav is booed at Boston University graduation ceremony amid writers’ strike. Graduating students chanted “Pay your writers!” and heckled Warner Bros. Discovery
CEO David Zaslav during the studio head’s commencement speech at Boston University.

Number of the week

Netflix said at its upfront presentation that its ad-supported tier has reached “nearly 5 million” global monthly active users since it launched in November, with 25% of new customers choosing the cheaper plan in the 12 countries where it exists so far. Note that the company didn’t say how many actual subscribers the version with commercials has accumulated. Each subscribing household can contain multiple viewers.

Mouse and Penguin vs. Gator

Walt Disney Co. pulled out of a plan to build a $1-billion campus in Lake Nona, Fla., which would have relocated 2,000 jobs, including the famed Imagineers, to the state, mostly from California.

This comes as Disney trudges through a long “Don’t Say Gay” feud with Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to announce his presidential bid imminently. It also comes as Disney is looking to cut $5.5 billion in spending. The move to Florida was never popular among the rank and file, though a small number had already bought homes in the Sunshine State.

So this reversal works on several levels for Disney.

The company’s about-face is not the only recent example of corporate pushback against DeSantis-backed “anti-woke” policies.

Penguin Random House — joined by free speech advocacy group PEN America — sued the Escambia County School District and its school board in federal court, alleging they were violating the 1st Amendment by scrubbing library shelves of books based on a political or ideological disagreement.

They also allege a 14th Amendment violation, because the challenged books are disproportionately by nonwhite and/or LGBTQ+ authors and explore themes of diversity. Toni Morrison’s “The Bluest Eye” and Sapphire’s “Push” are among the titles the district has removed.

Best of the web

— Exploring the comedy of grief through the latest stand-up specials. (New York Times)

— As HBO Max becomes just “Max,” is the company fixing what ain’t broken? (Wired)

— Nintendo’s “The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom” is a huge hit. (Axios)

Finally ...

This story by Jaweed Kaleem is mind-blowing. If the headline (“A Black woman and a white woman went viral fighting racism. Then they stopped speaking to each other”) doesn’t grab you, I don’t know what will.