New podcast ponders O.C.’s ‘purple’ politics ahead of the election

As Orange County goes, so goes the nation?

Mike Madrid, a longtime political consultant and author, is convinced enough to anchor his new “Red County, Blue County, Orange County” podcast around the idea.

The old county of President Ronald Reagan’s imagination, “where the good Republicans go before they die,” has all but withered away. Supplanting it is a new contested but also collaborative purple terrain, one that Madrid, a senior fellow at UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, believes is well-poised to determine our national fate politically.

“Orange County is a perfect battleground for the future,” Madrid said. “We’re seeing something very unique in Orange County that is probably a preview of what is going to be happening over the next couple of decades in this country.”

Ahead of the presidential election in November, Madrid’s six-episode Seussian-named series explores O.C.’s transformation from a sturdy “Orange Curtain” of conservatism to a county where Democrats now outnumber Republicans in voter registration, 37% to 34%.

But more than party affiliation, Madrid suggests that there are three main prisms — race and ethnicity, class and education — that people view politics through, especially in O.C., which has a sizable community of well-educated nonwhites.

According to Census data, the county is roughly 37% white, 34% Latino and 22% Asian American. Nearly 44% of all adult residents have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

“There is a new electorate that is emerging that is entirely different than the older model, which was very rigid,” Madrid said. “We believe that education is more dominant than the race and income level considerations.”

In 2016, the county’s voters backed Hillary Clinton for president, the first Democrat at the top of the ticket to take O.C. since the Great Depression.

Republican reluctance to support Donald Trump played a role in the outcome.

“We saw something that year, which we had never seen before,” Madrid said. “Though there was no vote for Trump at the top of the ticket, Republicans got more votes down ticket. There isn’t even a name for that.”

Four years later, Joe Biden won the county for Democrats, again, and made surprising inroads in besting then President Trump in suburbs north and south like Brea, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest and Laguna Hills.

It appeared as if the “suburban warriors” of Harvard Professor Lisa McGirr’s book on Orange County conservatism could no longer anchor a new American right-wing movement led by Trump, even if they hatched Proposition 187 and propelled the bellicose border rhetoric that stands ascendant today.

The county’s political realignment has given Madrid, who founded the Lincoln Project, much to talk about. Future podcast episodes will tackle topics like Proposition 187 and the death of the aforementioned “Orange Curtain.”

Guests include former Rep. Loretta Sanchez, current Huntington Beach Councilman Tony Strickland and Gustavo Arellano, a columnist for The Los Angeles Times.

“From California to Washington, D.C., Orange County has had an outsized impact on American politics, and the lessons it holds today are invaluable for anyone looking to bring together communities,” UC Irvine School of Social Ecology Dean Jon Gould said. “That’s why we created the ‘Red County, Blue County, Orange County’ project. We are fortunate to have Mike as a partner in this endeavor. He combines unparalleled experience, a sharp mind and tremendous advocacy skills.”

Madrid with Jon Gould, dean of UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, which produced the podcast.

(Courtesy UC Irvine School of Social Ecology)

Looking forward to November, the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives is hotly contested — and O.C. could play an outsize role, once more.

Conservative Korean American politicians Young Kim (CA-40) and Michelle Steel (CA-45) helped retake congressional seats for Republicans in 2020, even if Trump didn’t carry the county that year.

Both are running for reelection in November.

Another race for Rep. Katie Porter’s 47th Congressional District seat following her failed Senate bid pits Republican Scott Baugh against state Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat.

That race, as well as Steel’s reelection bid against newcomer Derek Tran has Madrid salivating for new political data.

“What we’re going to be looking at is the difference, not just between the racial composition of the districts but the class compositions and the education levels,” he said. “The fact that we can do all three of those in the same county in the same region, with potentially different results is what is uniquely Orange County.”

Latino residents, the largest ethnic group in O.C., aren’t poised to be a key voting bloc in either of those two congressional races but still have a big part to play in terms of the county’s evolving politics.

Madrid, who is also the author of the new book “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy,” postulates that Latino politics itself is evolving and is bucking assimilation assumptions in O.C. and across the nation.

“What’s fascinating is to see the Hispanic community in Santa Ana that’s going from Democrats to increasingly Republican, as they become more second and third generation,” he said. “Next door in Westminster, we’re seeing Vietnamese becoming less Republican as they become more second and third generation.”

As Madrid continues with his fellowship at UC Irvine, the podcast series will serve as a foundation for a future class to be taught after the elections, of course.

Until then, new episodes are set to be released every Thursday through Sept. 5.

“It’s aimed not just at a California or an Orange County audience,” Madrid said. “It’s designed to be a focus for national journalists, pundits, politicians, reporters and researchers to understand that this purple county is unique and it’s really a harbinger of things to come.”