POLITICS ASIDE -- s.j. cahn

Picture this: It’s December 2000, one of those cold, foggy mornings. Dana

Rohrabacher returns to his Huntington Beach home after a morning of

surfing. He showers, skips shaving to let his beard grow and sits down to

breakfast. He thinks he might do some Christmas shopping.

Over in Newport Beach, Chris Cox wakes up, helps his children get ready

for school, sees them off and then settles into playing Mr. Mom for his

2-year-old.

Both have time to kill after losing their elections.

Sound farfetched? The odds might be astronomical, but county Democrats

are hoping to paint that very picture.

Across the county, Democrats are crowing about the wonderful selection of

candidates lining up in this traditionally Republican area.

In the Assembly 70th District, Merritt McKeon is set to face off against

likely Republican nominee John Campbell, who on the books at least is

facing a primary challenge. While Campbell is a strong candidate, who has

lined up both money and endorsements, McKeon, who has name recognition

for her part in helping bring back a 3-year-old girl who allegedly was

abducted by her father, is definitely a stronger candidate than the

Democrats’ choice in 1998: nobody.

With nobody challenging Marilyn Brewer, she swept back into office with

76% of the vote (the Natural Law candidate pulled in about 23%).

Cox, facing Christina Avalos, pulled in a whopping 67%, against Avalos’

29.5%. And Rohrabacher won with more than 58%, versus Patricia Neal’s

37%.

Both, this time, likely will face tougher challenges. Rohrabacher’s

opponent, Ted Crisell, has national connections, and five Democrats are

looking to battle Cox. One, Maziar Mafi, has already raised $50,000, and

another, Jim Keysor, is a proven winner: He was an assemblyman from the

San Fernando Valley in the ‘70s.

With these stronger candidates, next year will be a different story,

Democrats claim.

The possible theme of their campaigns? That the Republicans just aren’t

listening to the people, mainly because they are so assured of winning

their seats.

On the environment, education, Social Security and, perhaps, even El Toro

airport, Democratic leaders in the county believe they are more in tune

with the pulse of the people. And somewhere, they say, they’ll be able to

pull a major upset.

Nationally, this scenario is interesting because the current conventional

wisdom says that the Democrats will take back the House. To stave off the

Democratic challenge, Republican leaders such as Cox freely contribute

their extra money into tight races (Cox has more than $1 million as of

June financial reports). But if he finds himself with a tougher challenge

than expected, he’ll have to use that money on himself -- maybe allowing

a well-financed Democrat to steal a seat somewhere else.

Five such thefts, and Cox, Rohrabacher and their fellow GOPers will be

following the lead of Speaker Dick Gephardt.

* S.J. CAHN is city editor of the Daily Pilot. Send your political news

to him at: Daily Pilot, 330 W. Bay St., Costa Mesa 92627; by fax at (949)

646-4170; or by e-mail to dailypilot@latimes.com. He can be reached at

(949) 574-4268.