THE BELL CURVE -- joseph n. bell

Dick Lewis is an electrical engineer out of Stanford who got hooked on

computers very early on and was finally seduced into turning his hobby

into a vocation. Lewis, who lives in Newport Beach, uses his computer to

crunch numbers with the same pleasure and satisfaction he derives from

chamber music (he’s a past president of the Laguna Beach Chamber Music

Society) and the creation of esoteric limericks.

As a result of his sophisticated and remarkably accurate numerical

analyses, Lewis has been in demand for some years by the local press and

political managers to detect trends that make sense out of seeming

anomalies. He usually isn’t asked to interpret them, but he enjoys doing

that, too, because politics intrigues him almost as much as computers.

He laid some local numbers on me over lunch the other day, then added

some meaning to them that he wouldn’t want to bet the house on, but that

I would strongly urge local politicians -- as well as local citizens --

to weigh carefully.

Probably the most important is the growing disinclination of our young

people to vote -- and when they do, to register as independents.

“They seem,” says Lewis, “to be saying a pox on both your political

houses.”

The figures Lewis has assembled show that the voting age population of

Orange County went up 9.3% between 1992 and 1998, but voter registration

actually went down by 5.1% during the same period. Young people accounted

for much of this. There were 156,000 registered voters in the 18-25 age

group in 1992; six years later, 18-25 voter registration had shrunk to

118,000. Those are numbers our social science teachers might usefully

munch on.

“Not only are fewer young people registering,” says Lewis, “but those who

do are voting in steadily smaller numbers. As a result, both the average

age and median age of registered voters in Orange County are going up.

And the reasons, it seems to me, are indifference and apathy in our young

people, more than anger.”

This indifference isn’t peculiar to Orange County. A recent study

conducted by the U.S. Department of Education found that only one in four

of the nation’s 3 million high school seniors eligible to cast their

first votes next year have more than a rudimentary understanding of how

the American system of democratic government works. And indications are

that their voting record in 2000 will be even worse than the fewer than

20% of eligible voters in the 18-25 age group who voted in the last

presidential election.

Although that picture is relatively less grim among older voters, Lewis

is fascinated on this broader canvas with the switching that has been

taking place in the political declarations of Orange County voters. In

1992 registrations, Orange County Republicans outnumbered Independents by

4 to 1. By ‘98, it was 3 to 1, and presently it is 2.7 to 1.

But Democrats shouldn’t be breaking out any champagne because they have

also been losing ground to the Independents. As a result, their relative

strength against the Republicans has held steady at 3 to 2. Again, much

of this swing has been among young people; almost one-third are now

registered as Independents, up from 20% in 1992.

“It seems to me,” says Lewis, “that candidates in a close race should

give some extra thought to the independent vote and the potential in the

youth vote.”

And how would he suggest they do that?

“Both young people and independent voters of every age tend to be less

patient with the same old political baloney than older voters. So a

candidate with something fresh to say comes across much better with these

two groups. Look at Jesse Ventura. Isn’t he a case in point?”

Lewis doesn’t see a lot of encouragement in these numbers, however, for

local Democrats. “There are many fewer moderate Republicans than

conservative Democrats in Orange County,” he says. “Since Orange County

Republicans are much further to the right than local Democrats are to the

left, the Republicans aren’t likely to put up moderate candidates because

they can lose far more on the right than they will gain on the left. Tom

Campbell, for example, the moderate Republican congressman from Stanford,

probably couldn’t get elected in Orange County. But losing the right up

north didn’t matter.”

And what does that say about the chances of Democrats to unseat any of

Orange County’s entrenched Republican officeholders?

Lewis: “It says to me that the relative position of Republicans versus

Democrats is not likely to change in Orange County, and the only chance

for a conservative Democrat is to hold his base solidly and appeal to

Independents as well as the relatively small number of moderate

Republicans.”

Finally, as his parting shot, he likes to recall the interview with a

disinterested nonvoter who was asked to explain the difference between

ignorance and apathy, and responded: “I don’t know, and I don’t care.”

* JOSEPH N. BELL is a Santa Ana Heights resident. His column runs

Thursdays.