Numbers off in city’s Greenlight study

Noaki Schwartz

NEWPORT BEACH -- Four months and $11,700 later, a professional analyst

hired to study Greenlight’s slow-growth measure had trouble with the

initiative’s complex wording and made some miscalculations.

“It certainly isn’t as simple a measure as proponents have made it out to

be,” said City Manager Homer Bludau. “It isn’t just yes or no to

traffic.”

Last week, city officials announced that John Douglas, an independent

analyst, had completed a breakdown of the measure. Allan Beek --

Greenlight proponent and the only other person to study the effects of

the initiative -- called the planning department late last week after he

discovered errors in the study.

“John did his work on the individual amendments impeccably,” Beek said.

“He just didn’t add them up right.”

Douglas could not be reached for comment.

The Greenlight measure proposes to give voters the final say on certain

“major” developments. However, the process to decide which projects would

trigger a vote is very complex. To determine if a citywide election would

be necessary, officials would determine if the 46 distinct neighborhoods

in the city are built to capacity.

In addition to the proposed development, officials must add 80% of the

projects that prompted changes to the general plan in the last decade.

The accumulated total would indicate whether the proposed development

requires a vote.

The miscalculation occurred at this point, Bludau said.

“Paul assumed every amendment would add to this total,” Beek explained.

“But if Greenlight had been in effect, larger projects would not be added

to the total because they would have to be voted on. Smaller projects

that did not get voted on would add to the total, though.”

While Douglas calculated there would be as many as 18 projects that would

have required citywide votes if the measure had been in effect, Beek said

he counted 15. While the figures are not wildly different, city staff

will announce at tonight’s meeting that it is looking into Beek’s

observations.

“I think it is really complicated,” Bludau said. “I don’t think many are

going to understand the details of it.”

Still, Beek remains optimistic and feels that if Greenlight passes in

November, it will make things less complicated.