Prep column: Random thoughts on football races

Barry Faulkner

I’ve read up, studied scores, analyzed the fine print and conducted

unofficial polls. Yet, the degree of confidence this research provided in

predicting the football races in the Pacific Coast and Sea View leagues,

led me to consider a somewhat less meticulous method.

So, I set aside my pile of resource material, cleared my mind and

opened myself to the wonder of chance.

I wrote each school’s name on a piece of paper, shuffled and shook

them, then plucked them blindly, one-by-one, from a paper bag, assigning

each a finish order from first to worst. After all, I theorized, this

must have been the procedure some CIF Southern Section poll voters used

to concoct the mysterious divisional top-10 alignments I’ve seen in

recent weeks.

First the PCL: Congratulations Northwood, which, without even playing

a varsity league game, has been crowned the kismet kingpin.

Many have predicted the Timberwolves, stocked with growing legions of

players who formerly fed the Irvine High gridiron machine of the 1990s,

would soon be snacking voraciously on PCL foes. But, without a single

senior, a rise so rapid was completely unexpected.

The random remainder came up: 2. Estancia; 3. Costa Mesa; 4. Corona

del Mar; 5. University; and 6. Laguna Beach.

The same method anointed Laguna Hills the Sea View favorite, followed

by, in order, Irvine, Aliso Niguel, Woodbridge and Newport Harbor.

But I could not, I decided, leave it at this. Surely I could predict

my way out of a paper bag, though I’m tucking said bag away in a desk

drawer, should I require its use as a disguise in five weeks time.

In the Sea View, League of Champions, so named because all five

members won section championships in the 1990s (the last eight Sea View

champions have also gone on to win a section crown), Irvine has earned

the favorite’s tag.

The unbeaten Vaqueros, who have outscored teams, 147-11, in the first half this season, are hoping to make the most out their last hurrah,

before Northwood drains the talent pool.

Newport Harbor (4-1), with Chris Manderino now at tailback, is

literally not the same team that struggled to a 14-7 win over Orange

Lutheran in the opener, then lost to still unbeaten Marina in Week 2.

The defending league and CIF Division VI champions clearly won’t let

their five-game league winning streak die without a fight, beginning with

Friday’s probable league title showdown at Irvine.

Laguna Hills (3-2), earns an edge over Woodbridge (2-3) in the battle

for the remaining playoff berth, which could be decided with their

head-to-head meeting Friday at Mission Viejo High.

Aliso Niguel (1-4) should be left longing for its salad days in the

PCL.

Speaking of the PCL, the current members of which have combined for

only one playoff win the last four seasons (Costa Mesa in 1997), there

are as many enigmas as contenders.

University (3-2) overcame modest preseason expectations to become my

title favorite after Week 4. But the Trojans were shut down, 7-3, last

week by Saddleback, which has fallen to Mesa and CdM.

Estancia (3-2), the heir apparent coming in, stumbled badly with

back-to-back losses to Canyon and Santa Ana Valley. It rebounded with a

43-0 trouncing of Orange Friday, the identical score Uni posted against

the Panthers in Week 4.

Mesa (4-1), ranked No. 1 in CIF Division IX two weeks ago, was

embarrassed by Ocean View, 29-7, on Sept. 29 and needed a late field goal

to avoid falling to winless Westminster in Week 3. Further, wins over

Bolsa Grande and Brethren Christian, by a combined 107-14 margin, may

threaten the Mustangs’ credibility more than enhance it.

CdM (2-3) has played the league’s toughest schedule to date and enters

on a two-game win streak. Should CdM beat Mesa Friday, it jumps into

title contention.

Northwood (2-3) is still an unknown quantity after a preleague

schedule that featured only one Orange County opponent (a 34-0 loss to

4-1 La Habra).

Laguna Beach (1-4) lost its opener to La Quinta (outscored, 143-18,

since). Enough said.

I’ll take Uni over the Newport-Mesa triumvirate, with Northwood and

Laguna Beach playing spoiler.