Prep football: Odds against Mesa

Barry Faulkner

COSTA MESA - Though the Costa Mesa High football team did its best

to leave a lasting impression Thursday upon those selecting the CIF

Southern Section’s lone at-large entry into the 16-team Division IX

playoff bracket, released Sunday, the odds don’t appear in the Mustangs’

favor.

“I think we deserve it,” Mesa Coach Jerry Howell said after a 57-7

Pacific Coast League trouncing of Northwood Thursday to finish the

regular season 6-4.

But events in the rest of the Division’s four leagues Thursday, cast

several more qualified candidates into the at-large pool.

In the Freeway League, Buena Park upended Troy, 43-20, bumping Troy

out of the league’s top three. At 6-4 and ranked No. 4 in last week’s CIF

Division IX poll, it would appear the Warriors have the inside track to

the at-large berth.

Though Troy’s victories (over Katella, La Serna, Ontario, Santa Ana,

Sunny Hills and Sonora) came against teams with a combined 13-45 record

(a .224 winning percentage going into Friday’s games), the four teams

which defeated the Warriors (Orange Lutheran, La Habra, Fullerton and

Buena Park) won 77.5% of their games.

The four teams that beat Mesa (Ocean View, Estancia, Corona del Mar

and University) brought a combined .649 winning percentage into Friday’s

action. The six teams Mesa beat (Saddleback, Bolsa Grande, Westminster,

Brethren Christian and Laguna Beach) had won 27% of their contests,

heading into Friday.

Furthermore, Orange Lutheran (No. 3 in Division XI), Fullerton (No. 6

in Division IX) and La Habra (No. 7 in Division IX), were members of

their respective Top-10 polls this week. Fullerton has been ranked as

high as No. 2.

While Mesa was ranked No. 1 after Week 3, a designation Howell said

was not deserved, the Mustangs subsequently fell out of the poll.

University (No. 5) and Estancia (No. 10) are ranked in the most recent

Division IX poll.

In the Valle Vista League, a Covina victory Friday over heavy underdog

Sierra Vista would mean a three-way tie for second. A coin flip would

then leave either Covina (6-4 with a win), Baldwin Park (6-3-1) or Bonita

(5-5) as an at-large candidate.

Baldwin Park, No. 9 in Division IX, would have simplified this picture

with a win over Bonita Thursday, but Bonita prevailed, 45-21.

Costa Mesa, which has been to the playoffs four straight seasons, but

won only one postseason game during that time (1997), could also receive

competition from Rancho Alamitos of the Garden Grove League.

The Vaqueros (5-4-1 after a loss to league co-champion Pacifica

Thursday), have been ranked as high as No. 6 in the Division IX poll.

Their losses have come against teams (Western, Saddleback, Garden Grove)

with a .690 winning percentage heading into Friday. Their victims

(Westminster, Magnolia, La Quinta, Santiago and Bolsa Grande) had won

just 19.8% of their games heading into Friday. They tied Los Amigos,

which would have wrapped up the league’s third-place berth win a win over

3-6 La Quinta Friday.

Valencia, unranked in Division IX, but highly respected (the Daily

Pilot ballot has voted the Tigers No. 3 the last five weeks), would also

enter the at-large pool with a 5-5 record, if upset by Orange League foe

Anaheim Friday.

When selecting at-large representatives, the leading factors

considered by the Southern Section have been: overall record; strength of

competition; and how a team is playing at the end of the season.