Money no sure winner

S.J. Cahn

NEWPORT BEACH -- For lease: A very safe Republican Congressional

district.

Asking price: About $2 million for the first two years, but just a few

hundred thousand every two years after.

Such an ad would fit perfectly with the seat of Rep. Christopher Cox

(R-Newport Beach), who is rumored to be President Bush’s choice for a

federal judgeship.

Since word of the possible appointment -- which Cox and his office

have firmly not commented on -- came from Washington earlier this month,

would-be successors to Cox have begun lining up, albeit carefully.

The short list of names contains state Sen. Dick Ackerman (R-Tustin),

Assemblyman Bill Campbell (R-Villa Park) and Supervisor Todd Spitzer.

Others who are considering a run, or are being courted, include former

Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer, former Rep. Jim Rogan, Newport Beach

philanthropist John Crean, state Sen. Ross Johnson (R-Irvine), former

state Sen. John Lewis and Tustin millionaire Mark Chapin Johnson.

All are being extremely deliberate in their on-the-record comments,

stressing that they will do nothing official until Cox is actually named

to the position and resigns his seat.

Millionaire Johnson, in fact, is the sole candidate to announce firmly

that he would run if Cox resigns. The self-made millionaire has also set

a high money benchmark for other possible candidates, committing to spend

about $1.5 million of his own money on the campaign, with additional

funding from friends and supporters.

Given that Johnson is one of the founders of the New Majority, a

moderate Orange County Republican group, he can lay claim to rich and

influential friends. Some of those with ties to Newport-Mesa include

Irvine Co. Chief Executive Officer Donald Bren, Broadcom founder Henry

Samueli, former Irvine Co. Executive Vice President Gary Hunt, El Toro

proponent George Argyros and Orange County Performing Arts Center

fund-raiser Roger Kirwan.

But friends and money will not win Johnson the seat, local political

observers are stressing.

“I don’t know that you can spend $3 million in that district,” said

Eileen Padberg, an Irvine political consultant who is urging Brewer to

run.

Padberg pointed out that Cox’s South County seat lacks the large

television market that typically drives up the cost of a campaign.

Instead, candidates would have to reach voters through less-expensive

methods such as cable TV ads and especially direct mailings.

“[About] $500,000 or $1 million would run a good race,” Padberg said.

In Los Angeles, where television is the best way to reach voters,

Rogan spent $4.7 million last fall in his losing campaign for his

Glendale seat.

In comparison, Cox spent about $180,000 in his successful reelection

campaign. His closest challenger, Democrat John Graham, spent less than

$18,000 to earn 30% of the vote.

Brewer, who said she has been receiving encouraging calls in the past

week and will consider a run once Cox’s future is clear, also discounted

the importance of money in the race.

Vast amounts of cash did little for the failed campaigns of Michael

Huffington, Al Checchi, Darrell Issa and Jane Harman, she noted.

“I think people are much more aware” when a campaign is self-funded.

It makes them skeptical of it, Brewer added.

Johnson, too, conceded that he can’t buy a Congressional win.

“The money will be important,” he said. “But it is the grass-roots way

that will do it.”

Johnson, who emphasized that he is not an official New Majority

candidate and that the group is not a legal political action committee,

said he believed his “moderate, common sense” approach would appeal to

the district’s voters.

Still, he said, “I and my supporters are prepared to spend whatever it

takes to win this race.”

Crean, too, has said he is thinking about a self-financed run. He

would not say how much he would be willing to spend, but did joke that

the job is not “worth very much.”

With all the political jockeying already going on, it is clear others

are putting a premium value to it. And given that the seat represents one

of the most Republican districts in the country, Padberg was right to

call it “a job for life.”