A CLOSER LOOK -- A bruising battle awaits

S.J. Cahn

NEWPORT BEACH -- Two visions are shaping up of the race to replace

Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) if he is appointed to the federal

bench.

In one, Cox -- who acknowledged last week that he has talked to the

White House about an appointment to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals --

is confirmed by the Senate within the next few months, forcing a short,

intense race that is over by the fall.

In the other, Cox’s appointment by President Bush is held up by Senate

Democrats, he remains in office until near the end of the year and the

election to replace him is not held until next March’s general election.

Tustin millionaire Mark Johnson is betting on the first version. He

has officially created a campaign committee and put $1 million of his own

money in its coffers in preparation for Cox (R-Newport Beach) possibly

vacating his seat to take a federal judgeship.

“This is time that cannot be lost,” Johnson said this week of his

aggressive approach to winning a seat that isn’t vacant yet.

Cox was scheduled to meet last week with Sen. Dianne Feinstein

(D-Calif.) about the nomination, which is expected to be announced by the

White House this week.

Feinstein and her colleague, Sen. Barbara Boxer, essentially could

hold up or even quash the appointment through the traditional Senate

confirmation process. Boxer has raised concerns about the nomination. A

spokesman for Feinstein said she has not commented on whether she would

support Cox.

Neither Feinstein nor Cox’s office returned calls seeking comment

about their meeting.

Newport Beach ties

Johnson, who’s long been a board member of the Orange County

Performing Arts Center, including stints as chairman and chief executive

officer, also has hired two fund-raisers and has retained Sacramento

political consultants McNally Temple.

“It is going to be a very short, fast and intense campaign,” said the

54-year-old Johnson, a founding member of the moderate Republican group

the New Majority, which includes notable Newport-Mesa heavyweights George

Argyros, Don Bren, Gary Hunt, Roger Kirwan and Henry Samueli.

Johnson is right to hope for a quick race, largely because a fast,

crowded campaign is his best hope for victory, said State Sen. Dick

Ackerman (R-Fullerton).

Ackerman is among a host of other hopefuls interested in Cox’s seat.

Those mulling over a race include Assemblyman Bill Campbell (R-Villa

Park), Supervisor Todd Spitzer, former Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer,

Newport Beach philanthropist John Crean, state Sen. Ross Johnson

(R-Irvine), Newport Beach physician Don Udall and Newport Beach Realtor

Bill Cote.

Santa Ana City Councilman Brett Franklin also told the Pilot that he

is considering a run, while former Rep. Jim Rogan has pulled out as a

possible candidate.

Given all the unknowns, “I think it’s a little premature” to be

setting up committees, Ackerman said. “I think it’s going to happen

later, rather than sooner.”

If the election were held off until next March, the district will have

been realigned according to new Census figures and what it might look

like is anybody’s guess.

A single GOP choice

Also by that point, the list of hopefuls will have been pared down,

with one candidate having the support of the county Republican Party,

Ackerman said.

Eileen Padberg, an Irvine-based political consultant with ties to

Brewer, agreed that the county party, led by Chairman Tom Fuentes, will

choose its own candidate -- a conservative “hard-liner.”

That choice, she added, will be easier now that Rogan -- who could

call up strong political support from the nation’s capitol -- is out of

the running.

But at the same time, she said, Cox’s district does not match that

political stance.

“I think the district is a moderate district,” Padberg said. “It’s

highly educated and pretty diverse.”

That could be an advantage for Johnson, who as a member of the New

Majority has pushed the county party to focus less on divisive issues,

such as abortion, and more on what the group says are the party’s

strengths and attraction to voters: fiscal responsibility and

pro-business policies.

However, Johnson will have to state clear positions on issues beyond

that New Majority mantra if he wants to succeed Cox, Padberg said.

Women’s rights, environmental concerns and education, for instance, are

all issues important to the district.

And certainly he’ll have to address the El Toro airport, which likely

will be a driving force in the election, especially if it is held off

until March when voters also could be voting on the South County-led

proposal for a park at the former Marine base.

Johnson, whose ties to New Majority member and major El Toro proponent

George Argyros could leave him with an uphill climb to get votes from

Irvine and other southern parts of the district, is stressing that the

airport issue is one for the county to work out, not the federal

government.

At the same time, however, he is quick to blast all sides for spending

too much taxpayer money and not resolving the issue in a “statesmanlike”

way.

No ace up their sleeve

One possible wild card in this race is not expected to be an ace: an

endorsement from Cox.

Most of those thinking of running, while of course wanting Cox’s

public anointment, consider him too shrewd to come out for a particular

candidate. It is even unclear whether, as a judge, Cox could legally

offer his endorsement.

In the end, without a cohesive Republican county party putting forth

one candidate and without Cox choosing a successor, only one thing seems

certain: It will be a bruising battle.