Forget Dow Jones, it’s all in the trash

Mathis Winkler

NEWPORT BEACH -- When Dave Niederhaus notices a drop in the amount of

trash residents produce, he doesn’t credit successful recycling programs.

For the city’s general services director, a decline of about 2% -- or

790 tons -- points to an economic downturn instead.

“When an affluent community starts to have less waste, it generally

indicates that things are starting to go downhill,” said Niederhaus, who

recently released the city’s trash figures for the 2000-01 fiscal year as part of a year-end report on his department’s activities.

Niederhaus first noticed the connection between trash and the economy

in the 1980s, when a recession tiptoed about six months behind a dip in

waste.

At the time, he wrote off his observations as a quirky theory. But

then, in the early 1990s, Niederhaus witnessed the phenomenon again. Last

fall, the city’s trash volume started to drop once more amid talk of a

slowing economy.

“Every time, it has been the bell ringer for the economy backing off,”

Niederhaus said, adding that as residents become more cautious consumers,

less packaging material gathers up as waste.

The fact that Newport Beach actually should have produced 300 o7

moref7 tons of trash compared with the previous year just adds evidence

to his theory, Niederhaus said.

The additional trash should have come from about 250 new homes in the

One Ford Road development, with every household producing about 1.2 tons

of waste per year.

While Niederhaus seems convinced that he’s got a point, he made it

clear that he doesn’t expect his City Hall colleagues to start predicting

Newport Beach’s economic future by looking at trash levels.

“It’s not an exact science,” he said. “I’ve mentioned it to people in

the city, but I’m not so sure they believe me.”

Dennis Danner, the city’s administrative services director and with it

Newport Beach’s top finance guy, said Niederhaus’ observations sound

reasonable to him.

“But no, I don’t have any plans to” look at trash volume, Danner said,

adding that he preferred to base his tax revenue predictions on

economists’ advice. He added that he also keeps informed by listening to

economic news on the radio and reading business newspapers and monthly

newsletters from the California Society of Municipal Finance Officers,

where he is a board member.

So far, the economy’s also still strong enough to have Niederhaus

struggling to fill vacant positions in his department. Construction

workers don’t feel the need to give up higher-paying jobs in the private

industry and are reluctant to seek more secure employment with public

agencies such as Newport Beach, he said.

The lack of workers caused a 34% drop in sidewalk construction,

Niederhaus said, adding that his department has a two-year backlog for

nonemergency work.

Nevertheless, Niederhaus said he’ll keep watching the trash.

“That has been the best barometer for the economy,” he said.

Trash etc. by the numbers

Here’s a list of things general services folks did last fiscal year,

which ended June 30:

* Residential trash: 39,376 tons

* Miles traveled to pick up trash: 131,618

* Street striping: 213,725 lineal feet, up 348%

* Traffic signs installed: 12,574, up 206%

* Car repairs: 3,570, down 44%

* Sidewalk construction: 49,744 square feet, down 34%

Niederhaus said the more street striping work and traffic signals are

a result of increased demand. He added that the decline in car repairs

came after the Police Department started repairing its own fleet

separately.

SOURCE: Newport Beach General Services Department 2000-01 year-end

activities report