The Bell Curve -- Joseph N. Bell

In the best of all possible worlds, when a fairly fought contest takes

place on a reasonably level playing field, the loser accepts the result

and congratulates the winner while vowing to continue to stand by his own

principles. That’s what I told the Harbor High cheerleaders a few columns

ago, and now in the aftermath of Measure W, I’m having a tough time

following my own advice.

It was hard enough to abide by those civilized rules when the chief

weapons of the airport foes were deceit and great gobs of money. It was

even harder the day after the election when we got blindsided by the U.S.

Navy and a passel of public officials -- including our own congressman --

who knew well before the election (but didn’t bother to share with us)

that the Navy was probably going to auction off the El Toro properties

regardless of the results. Although Rep. Chris Cox of Newport Beach has

been urging this action throughout the long airport battle, neither the

Clinton administration nor most of Cox’s constituents in Newport Beach

and Costa Mesa thought much of the idea. But the Bush administration

clearly did.

What this means quite simply is that there will be no commercial

airport at El Toro, the South County people who sold a gossamer park to

replace it apparently won’t have to produce this rabbit, and the

developers who either refused to take a position on the airport or

supported South County on this issue will be turned loose in a candy

store to produce more high-priced homes and tax revenue that will

probably end up going to the city of Irvine. Meanwhile, the pressure will

build and build and build to expand what was once a community airport at

John Wayne so that our pals in South County won’t have to be

inconvenienced when they want to fly.

I’ve been reading all the double-dome stuff about the real meaning of

the victory of Measure W. I can’t recall any such analyses following the

only two straight-up votes on this issue in which the airport won

handily. Now we are being told that embracing W means that Orange

Countians have turned away from pursuing economic growth and regional

thinking to deal with an identity crisis that has turned finally into a

battle for the soul of the county.

Maybe so. Or maybe it was a lot simpler than that. Maybe a group of

well-heeled pamphleteers with little regard for truth scared the

daylights out of many thousands of citizens who would have been affected

little or not at all by a reasonable commercial airport. And the small

percentage of North County people who bothered to vote on this issue and

wouldn’t have been affected at all couldn’t overcome this outpouring from

the south.

One other thing. I can’t avoid confronting the irritating likelihood

that while we were spending millions of dollars to make the case for an

El Toro airport, the Bush Navy Department -- assisted by our congressman

-- was waiting to drop the other shoe that would negate all that expense

and effort.

Yogi Berra was once alleged to have said that the game’s not over

until it’s over. I guess that piece of wisdom can now be applied to the

disposition of the El Toro base.

Only the most committed will remain in the fray for an airport.

Measure W will probably be attacked in the courts, but the verdict --

when and if it comes -- will be of dubious value. Cox will be reelected

because being a Republican in Newport Beach is more important than

torpedoing an airport most of us wanted. The developers will salivate.

And those of us who live beneath the John Wayne flight path will continue

to fight like hell to keep the lid on the traffic there.

I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect some help in that effort.

Right now, John Wayne carries the burden of air transportation for a

county with an economy that would rank about 30th in the world if it were

a country. To expect us to carry an even heavier burden -- especially

when an alternative has been stiffed by people who will contribute to

that burden -- is eminently unfair.

The people who rejected El Toro can’t have it both ways. As James

Flanigan wrote in the Los Angeles Times: “Failure to develop alternative

airport capacity will severely imperil the region’s economic growth.” The

Southern California Assn. of Governments estimates that the failure to

build El Toro could cost this region 16 to 18 billion a year in lost

commerce -- which would build a lot of Great Parks.

All this would suggest that the soul-searching start with the people

who refused to share this burden. If they have any sense of fair play,

they won’t be looking in this direction for solutions. Perhaps the

appropriate next step was suggested by a demographic expert named Robert

Lang who has studied Orange County extensively for many years. He told a

Times reporter that the county “is shifting gears to a more mature model

of growth.”

Now that’s just fine with me as long as this maturity doesn’t lead to

extending the runways at John Wayne. If that’s what finding our soul

requires, then the game isn’t over. Not yet.

* JOSEPH N. BELL is a resident of Santa Ana Heights. His column

appears Thursdays.