Weather Tidbits -- Dennis McTighe

Dennis McTighe

El Nino si or El Nino no?

Even though early anecdotal evidence (warm water crabs washing up in

San Diego) pointed to the potential of an oncoming El Nino, it now looks

like there is a 50/50 chance of it being an El Nino year.

Or at least that’s the latest conclusion of the Climate Prediction

Center.

While there was considerable warming in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

in February and April, with sea surface and subsurface temperatures up to

2 degrees above average, there were no anomalies of ocean temps for

regions further west at that time.

Likewise, all the atmospheric indices over the Central and Western

Pacific, such as low-level winds, sea-level pressure and precipitation,

indicated near-normal conditions. El Nino is an atmospheric-oceanic

phenomena that relies on both above- average water temps and

extra-easterly air flow.

If only one of those requirements is met then a minor El Nino is still

possible. If neither factor is in place, then there is no El Nino, DANG

IT !

Two Saturdays ago one 10th of an inch of rain kept the 1960-61 season

as still the driest ever on record intact at 4.30 inches here in Laguna.

Now we’re at roughly 4.38 inches.

However, up the road in Los Angeles, they are at 4.36 inches, still

.49 of an inch shy of their all-time driest of 4.85 set the same year

(60-61).

About half of the greater L.A. and Orange County communities can still

break their personal records, all set in 1960-61. That’s how dry it was

that year.

We had one good storm in early November, 1960 with nearly two inches

of rain. Right off the bat, we thought it was a harbinger of things to

come.

Then another two inches in December of ’60. Came New Years 1961, it

just shut off.

We got .30 inches the rest of the way. In 1961-62, however, it dumped

pretty good -- 19.18 inches.

As of this week, we’ve got Hurricane Alma getting feisty with

sustained winds now of 88 mph. She’s about 600 degrees south/southwest of

the tip and moving more northwesterly now. So I’d say that by the time

you read this, we’ll be getting some kind of bump from Alma’s northwest

movement.

Alma was born on Saturday the 25th and became a Category 1 on Monday,

while tracking more northwest than west, the tip will see some

south/southwest lines from Alma on Thursday.

Unlike the long interval, thicker southern hemisphere swells, these

Baja swells hit at a more severe southerly angle than the New Zealand

swells. And their intervals are much shorter around 10-11 seconds,

compared to 16 to 22 seconds.

Whereas southern hemisphere swells take 7-10 days to get here, Baja

swells show up in 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 days.

Tropical swells from Mexico’s waters can come up real quick sometimes,

too. Especially if the storm is a fatty and in our window, moving pretty

quick to the northwest at 15-20 mph.

Once in a while, we get lucky and a big 165 degree south/southeast

hurricane moves in. Like Linda on Sept. 15, 1997 for instance.

She sat 210 miles west of the tip or 950 miles to our south (178

degrees). Sustained winds of 174 mph, gusts to 220! On Monday the 15th,

Newport Point looked like Pipeline at 8 to 14 feet.

It was hot and glassy all day. The air temperature was 85-90 degrees

at the beach, water was 73 to 76 degrees! Linda’s waves were coming in at

a ridiculous angle, in fact they totally bypassed San Diego County.

Hurricane swells that big and beautiful happen but a handful of times.

Sometimes we can go years before we see this phenomenon work its magic

on Newport’s 18th Street sandbars, transforming this spot into Pipeline

minus the reef. Every bit as hollow, only it’s sand, not coral pinnacles.

See you in June, I hope.

* Dennis McTighe is a Laguna Beach resident.