Natural Perspectives -- Vic Leipzig and Lou Murray

Unlike weather, which is always changing, global climate has been

relatively stable for the past 10,000 to 12,000 years. Not

coincidentally, this is the time period during which human civilization

has flourished. Now, due mainly to the human civilization and the modern

industrialized era, the earth is poised on the brink of a major global

climate change.

For years, many people denied that the planet was warming. Now even

the George W. Bush administration has admitted that global warming is

real. The Environmental Protection Agency recently posted on their web

site how this change is likely to affect California. Here’s what we face.

The average temperature in central California increased by about two

degrees during the last century and is expected to rise an additional

five degrees over the next century. With an increase in temperature will

come in increase in smog. Illnesses and deaths due to heat and air

pollution will increase. For example, an increase in temperature of three

degrees doubles the number of heat-related deaths.

In many regions of the state, including our area, precipitation

decreased by about 20% over the past century. The Environmental

Protection Agency predicts a reversal of this trend for most of

California, with an increase in precipitation over the next 100 years.

The bad news is that it is expected to come in the form of more severe

and damaging winter storms that will cause coastal flooding.

The agency noted that global warming has caused the sea level to rise

8 inches in San Diego over the past century. They predict an additional

sea level rise of 13 to 19 inches for California over the next century.

This will cause flooding of low-lying property, permanent loss of

portions of our local coastal wetlands, erosion of our 8 miles of sandy

beach, and saltwater intrusion on our fresh water supply.

We live in Southern California, but snowfall hundreds of miles away in

the Rocky and Sierra mountains affects our water supply. If weather there

becomes warmer, as is predicted, winter storms will change in nature. A

greater percentage of the precipitation will come as rain, rather than

snow. The snowpack that is formed will melt earlier, overwhelming

reservoir storage capacity. The excess will have to be let out. But with

less runoff predicted for spring and summer, the reservoirs in Northern

California won’t be able to refill. This means less water for us.

Here’s another effect that warmer temperatures will have on us. As the

temperature increases, evaporation increases. Unless people all over town

suddenly decide to rip out their shallow-rooted, water-thirsty impatiens

and petunias and plant something more appropriate to our desert climate,

local water use for landscaping will increase to compensate for

evaporation. We’ll need more, not less, water from our already overdrawn

resources, confounding the problem.

As we’re seeing throughout the west, hotter and drier weather will

mean more wildfires. The worst fires in history of Arizona and Colorado

are burning right now. Hundreds of homes and buildings have been lost and

tens of thousands of people have been evacuated. When the fires reach the

empty towns, businesses will burn. Those businesses include gas stations

with petroleum and rubber products, dentist offices with mercury and

X-ray machines, transformers with PCBs, and old buildings with asbestos.

All will go up in smoke and drift on the wind, affecting even more

people.

The fires impacted Vic and I personally when we learned that one of

our friends was evacuated from the path of the Haywood, Colo. fire. She

has been staying in a motel, not knowing whether her house survived the

conflagration. Even if her home escaped the fire, she’ll be breathing

soot for months and living in a blackened moonscape for years.

Vic and I returned prematurely from a blisteringly hot vacation in

Arizona recently. We drove over the Chiricahua Mountains the day before

the National Forest Service closed all national forests in the state due

to fire danger. With our planned destinations closed to us, we came home.

On our way back, we watched fires burn in the mountains north of Tucson.

We couldn’t breath in the choking yellow air. It wasn’t much better as we

entered the Los Angeles basin with wildfires burning in the local

mountains.

These fires emit enormous amounts of greenhouse gases, which further

contribute to global warming. It’s a vicious cycle that, once set in

motion, may be impossible to stop.

Global warming is here and it’s going to cost all of us. Through

local, state, and federal taxes, we will pay for resources to fight

fires, protect from floods, and increase our water storage systems. We

also will pay for the damage caused by this change in climate. Through

our taxes, we will pay for homes lost to fires and floods and pay for

losses to farmers. We’ll also pay for the impact on our health through

increased health insurance and medical costs.

This climate change has been brought about, at least in part, by our

consumption of fossil fuels. By driving gas-hog, eco-pig SUVs and trucks,

people are contributing to the problem. By consuming more electricity,

people are forcing power plants to pour more pollutants into the air,

which contributes more greenhouse gases to the global warming problem.

We’re already seeing the disastrous consequences. When are people going

to wake up and smell the smoke?

* VIC LEIPZIG PhD and LOU MURRAY PhD are Huntington Beach residents

and environmentalists. They can be reached at o7 vicleipzig@aol.comf7 .