No one to fight against

It’s no great secret that Orange County in general, and

Newport-Mesa even more so, is GOP country.

The debate is whether that makeup is changing, with Democrats

arguing it is -- especially in north Orange County, where Democratic

Rep. Loretta Sanchez is cited as proof that the Democratic voter base

is growing -- and Republicans pointing to the huge percentage boost

GOP candidates for state and national office continue to get here as

proof it isn’t.

Still, Democratic candidate for the 48th Congressional District

John Graham highlights that change as a central part of his campaign

theme: “Orange County, indeed the entire country, is changing fast,”

he has noted for years on his Web site. “Conservative Republicans

like Christopher Cox have not kept up.”

My own unscientific study of that change, or not, is filtered

through Daily Pilot reporters. It essentially comes down to this: New

reporters, especially those covering Newport Beach, are still shocked

that people they are sure are Democrats almost never are.

Leading environmentalists in Newport-Mesa? Republicans. Blue

collar workers? Republicans. Sources sympathetic to the reporters’

plights? Republicans. And the list goes on.

I don’t expect, until reporters start mentioning all the Democrats

they’re encountering, that folks like Rep. Cox, Assemblyman John

Campbell or even Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, whose district now extends to

much more Democratic Long Beach, really will have much to worry about

during their reelection campaigns.

Democrats here also lack another crucial piece of the election

victory puzzle: a boogeyman. They had one when former Rep. Bob Dornan

was zinging his incredible brand of conservatism. Sanchez was the

lucky beneficiary of the concerted Democratic attack.

But now, when reading through the county Democratic Party’s

literature, it is bereft of almost any mention of local Republicans.

President Bush for months has been soundly and roundly criticized,

but other than encouragement to call elected officials about budget

talks or other pending votes, there seems to be little in the way of

focused opposition.

Without that dramatic target, fund-raising gets much more

difficult. (Next time a political solicitation comes, before you toss

is out, read through it. They typically focus on one figure who

represents all that’s wrong with government -- either Clinton; Bush;

Katherine Harris, who just had a fund-raiser in town; Janet Reno. The

person rarely will have any tie to your area. Gerrie Schipske, who is

running against Rohrabacher, is trying to paint the Congressman in

this light.) Without funds, winning elections gets harder.

And then Orange County stays Republican.

The solution? Maybe the Democrats should court Dornan to run

again.

Talk about influence

On Assemblyman Campbell’s Rough Rider Web site, which we reported

about a few weeks ago, Campbell has his resume posted, for those

interested.

Among his many accomplishments, this one stands out:

“John successfully advocated for community priorities, as well. He

won legislative victories relating to the clean up of the Newport

Upper Bay, coastal zone open space, and Corona Del Mar’s Vision 2004

project.

The Los Angeles Times Daily Pilot placed him in its top ten most

influential community members in 2001.”

No telling where he might end up this year.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He can be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at steven.cahn@latimes.com.