OK likely on new JWA deal

June Casagrande

The City Council tonight is expected to approve a plan to win

airlines’ support for extending the John Wayne Settlement agreement.

In tonight’s special session of the council, members will vote on

whether to authorize the city attorney to sign changes to the

existing settlement agreement that further raise the agreement’s caps

on passengers and gates.

Over a 10-year period, the modified agreement adds 1 million more

passengers per year over the extended settlement agreement’s cap of

9.8 million, bringing the total to 10.8 million; and it adds two

gates, bringing the total permissible to 20.

Those limits would apply until 2015. The agreement would extend

until 2020 the current agreement’s flight curfews.

City officials have tried to keep their enthusiasm in check until

they have a letter of support in hand from the Federal Aviation

Administration. But many say it’s very good news for the city.

“We wouldn’t be doing this if we didn’t think it was the right

thing to do,” City Attorney Bob Burnham said last week.

Some community members, though, question whether this is the best

deal to be had.

“I’m not happy with it,” said Charles Griffin, an airport activist

best known for creating the V-Plan for El Toro. “We want to have the

settlement agreement assure that the curfew will go on forever.”

Griffin also said he doesn’t think it’s appropriate to change a

deal that the city and other parties to the settlement agreement had

already agreed upon.

Officials have worried that the previously agreed upon terms could

be wiped out by a lawsuit from the airlines. This latest move is

designed to preclude such a lawsuit. In exchange for the increased

caps, airlines have said they will encourage the FAA to send a letter

to the city saying that they believe the agreement conforms with

federal law.

Some critics say that the added 1 million passengers and two added

gates will create too much noise and pollution. But city officials

and other parties to the settlement agreement say the effects will be

not be proportionate to the number of passengers and gates added.

The agreement allows up to 500,000 more passengers a year

beginning next year, with another 500,000 added 10 years down the

road. Burnham said that because the airport is currently operating

below the 8.4-million passengers a year now permitted, it’s unlikely

that the added 500,000 capacity will result in any immediate increase

in passengers.

“Your guess is as good as mine as to whether the additional

500,000 over what is authorized over the next plan year, whether

those passengers will really fly or not,” Burnham said. “My strong

belief is that they will not.”

Also, city officials say that it’s possible that the new agreement

could actually result in fewer flights. There are several reasons.

Much of the added passenger capacity will be applied toward the

quietest flights. This could encourage a trend toward bigger, quieter

planes that, because they are bigger, will take up a larger portion

of the million added passengers.

Also, as Mayor Tod Ridgeway said, the noisiest flights are now

operating with about 62% of their seats filled. The quietest flights

are averaging 70% full. As air travel increases, more seats will be

sold on these flights. It’s statistically possible that the airlines

could reach 1 million added passengers before they reach 100%

capacity. That would mean that some flights would have to be

eliminated.

“As the credit toward the [million annual passengers] gets eaten

up, it’s possible we could have fewer flights with greater

efficiency,” Ridgeway said.

* JUNE CASAGRANDE covers Newport Beach and John Wayne Airport.

She may be reached at (949) 574-4232 or by e-mail at

june.casagrande@latimes.com.