Good news in Costa Mesa crime stats

We try never to get too excited, or too worried, about changing crime

statistics in our cities.

One reason is the very nature of statistics, which can be

manipulating in almost any way and in support of almost any argument.

Take this example from a safe city, one that looks like either

Costa Mesa or Newport Beach.

In one year, there is a single murder. The next year, there are

two. How do you look at the change?

You can see it rationally as a minor increase, one that is

terrible given the value of human life, but an increase that almost

certainly signals no major trend or change.

Or you can see it as a doubling of the murder rate, a 100%

increase in this most violent of crimes. And you can let panic set

in.

It is the same increase, but treated entirely differently.

Another reason is that numbers come out so often that it is rarely

worth overreacting to one set. Soon, a whole new report on crime will

appear, and it likely will contain vastly different numbers.

Still, all that aside, it is hard not to be happy with the latest

crime numbers for Costa Mesa. During the first nine months of 2002,

the worst kinds of crime fell dramatically in the city, according to

the state Attorney General’s office. Violent crimes were down 25.2%.

That included robberies -- down 19% -- and aggravated assaults --

down 26.5%. The only category with an increase was thefts, which rose

3.6%.

Overall, the city saw a 2.9% drop in crime. Statewide, by

comparison, crime increased 5.3%, with violent crimes up 0.8% and

property crimes up 7.9%.

Police Chief Dave Snowden chalked up the improvements to focused

crime fighting by his department.

“The key was being able to pinpoint locations where crimes are

occurring,” Snowden said. “Crimes have been happening in all areas of

the city. Different areas have different problems.”

Patrol Division Commander Tom Warnack described the improvements

as part of an effort to give officers more control over how they

work.

“Each commander was given the authority to deploy officers as they

saw fit,” he said. “We call it directed patrol.”

It is that type of smart police work that, we all can hope, will

continue to drive Costa Mesa crime down.