No stopping this ball once it starts rolling

Newport Beach resident Marianne Zippi learned a valuable lesson when

she ran for City Council last fall:

“Don’t go up against an incumbent,” she said in a Tuesday Pilot

story announcing she is seeking the Republican nomination for the

70th Assembly District now held by Republican John Campbell of

Irvine.

While the numbers vary, incumbents typically win 90% or more of

the races they are in -- quite possibly the best argument for term

limits.

But next spring, incumbency won’t be in play in three elections in

Newport-Mesa: the 70th Assembly, the 68th Assembly and the 35th

Senate.

The two Assembly seats will be up for grabs for slightly different

reasons. In the 68th District, Assemblyman Ken Maddox is being

term-limited out, and he’s running for the 35th Senate seat now held

by state Sen. Ross Johnson (also being termed out). The 70th District

is opening up because Campbell is also running to replace Johnson,

even though he could have played it safe and stayed in his seat. (Of

course, with his own term due to end in 2006, doing so would have

meant missing the opportunity to ascend to Johnson’s seat.)

Along with Zippi, Anaheim businesswoman and Republican party

fund-raiser Cristi Cristich and former Irvine Community Services

Commission Chairman Chuck DeVore have both announced their plans to

run. That is good for voters, who -- because Campbell locked up the

nomination for the seat in 1998 before the primary -- did not get a

chance to exercise a meaningful vote five years ago.

Expect many more to jump in too. (Usually, once the ball gets

rolling it just picks up speed. Remember when Rep. Chris Cox was

poised to move on to a judicial seat? Would-be replacements appeared

almost daily.) The primary -- which, baring a Democratic upset even

Hollywood would have trouble conceiving, will decide who is headed to

Sacramento -- is only a year away.

Maddox’s seat has yet to create the early scramble that Campbell’s

has, but it certainly is only a matter of time before hopefuls begin

popping up there as well. Costa Mesa City Councilman Gary Monahan has

already said he’s not interested, which leaves that field open given

Monahan’s strong Republican ties in the county.

Depending on the outcome of the elections, Newport-Mesa stands to

win big, thanks to the realignment of the districts after the last

Census.

If a Costa Mesa resident does get into the fray and eventually win

the 68th seat and a Newport Beach resident takes the 70th,

Newport-Mesa would be far better represented than in recent times (it

would cut Irvine’s influence, as well, though perhaps a tad late to

change the El Toro airport debate). Such a twin bill of influence

seemingly would mean more dollars for the area, possibly directed to

the Back Bay and water-quality issues.

Certainly, with the important primaries in March (Democrats will

be choosing a presidential candidate, too, along with sacrificial

candidates for state and congressional seats) and the presidential

election in the fall of 2004, there is a host of important votes

headed Newport-Mesa’s way.

And that’s without mentioning the Marinapark hotel vote in Newport

Beach, also set for that November 2004 ballot.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He can be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.