All about patterns and observation

DENNIS McTIGHE

Your Tidbitter had no idea. So many readers out there compliment me

on my accuracy, often saying, “Your prediction was right on the money

again! Even the Weather Channel was way off the mark! How do you do

it?”

Honestly folks, I don’t know, as I don’t possess a little weather

swami or crystal ball, or meteorological guru or soothsayers.

I just study patterns, sort of, well, if this happened, then this

is likely to happen. That’s basically it!

I don’t use computers, or listen to what other sources say. I only

observe -- maybe that’s the key to my above-average accuracy. ‘Cause

you and I both know weather is such an inexact science -- only

earthquakes are harder to predict.

The first Gulf of Alaska low pressure trough of the season is

moving through the state today and tomorrow giving us a taste of

autumn, just a week and a half away. Showers fell in Northern

California, also in Oregon and Washington, which hadn’t seen

measurable rain in 56 days, a record.

The Pacific Northwest, actually all states west of the Continental

Divide, are closing their hottest summers on record or close to the

record.

And summer of 2003 was the year of the monsoon in our mountains

and deserts as well as Southern Nevada and Arizona, something I saw

coming as far back as April -- it’s all about patterns and

observation.

Joshua Tree has had 10.5 inches of rain since July 1st; Twentynine

Palms, 9.5 inches; Flagstaff, Ariz., 17 inches; Las Vegas, 8.25

inches; Tucson, Ariz., 15 inches.

Interestingly enough Joshua Tree’s 10.5 inches in nine weeks

surpasses the last five years total precipitation!

Then the capper, last week there was a tornado (100 yards wide)

that touched down just east of the monument!

Last weekend saw the best surf of the summer in Orange County at 3

to 6 feet, nothing huge, but the swell direction was great and there

was mirror smooth glassy surface conditions with sunny hot conditions

and warm water.

We could have had the Brooks Street Classic as it was perfect

south / southeast direction at 2 to 5 feet both days, oh well, the

annual Brooks Street “shoulda, woulda coulda” contest will have to

wait till next year.

Stay tuned!

* DENNIS McTIGHE is a Laguna Beach resident. He earned a

bachelor’s in earth sciences from UCSD and was a U.S. Air Force

weather forecaster at Hickman Air Force Base, Hawaii.