Working on those other voters

S.J. CAHN

Today, I want to shine a spotlight on those other voters -- the

Democrats.

Believe it or not, they’re out there, at least judging by numbers

for Orange County. In 2001, according to a survey by the Public

Policy Institute of California and UC Irvine, 27% of county residents

said they were registered Democrats. Republicans were at 35%. Three

percent said they’d registered with some “other party,” and 12% said

they were “independent.” And a good chunk of voters, 23%, isn’t

registered at all.

It certainly seems like those numbers would be skewed a bit here,

with Republican numbers higher. But even a large swing would result

in half of residents being GOPers and one in five being Democrats.

And those Democrats, now that the recall election is over, are

really having the most fun right now, with two handfuls of candidates

vying for the chance to be the party’s sacrificial lamb -- wait --

its Walter Mondale -- wait -- its Michael Dukakis -- wait -- its

nominee for the presidency next year.

(Since everything I read suggests people still don’t know who the

candidates are, here’s a list in general order of how they are doing

in popularity polls: former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean; retired Gen.

Wesley Clark; Rep. Dick Gephardt; Sen. Joe Lieberman; Sen. John

Kerry; the Rev. Al Sharpton; Sen. John Edwards; Rep. Dennis Kucinich;

and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun.)

Mind you, it’s not just me who is questioning this group’s mettle.

Rick Taylor, who ran for Newport Beach City Council last year, has

been a longtime Airport Working Group member and is a Democrat, said:

“I am totally unimpressed with all the Democratic candidates thus

far. They lack passion, genuineness and direction. This is an

incredibly weak lot.”

He, too, sees the past possibly reemerging next year.

“The Democratic Party has shifted to the left, and I see shades of

a Dukakis debacle in 2004,” he said.

In 1988, President George H.W. Bush defeated Dukakis in the

electoral college 426 to 111 and in the popular vote 48,881,278 to

41,805,374. (Of course, that was nothing compared to Ronald Reagan’s

trouncing of Mondale in 1984. Reagan received 53,428,357 votes, and

525 in the electoral college, to Mondale’s 36,930,923 votes and just

13 in the electoral college.)

Taylor is solidly in line with most Democrats, who are still

either undecided about whom they want to support or unhappy with

their choices.

But not every Democrat is quite that down at this point. Costa

Mesa Planning Commissioner Katrina Foley -- who has seen a number of

the candidates already -- sounded more enthusiastic about the

choices, although she said she still is deciding whom she’ll support.

Of the week’s big news -- that Dean had decided to forgo public

funding and thus the $45-million limit during the primary -- both

Foley and Taylor suggested it was risky business.

“He would say to you that he is not using public monies and thus

is not pushing his political agenda on the public dole,” Taylor said.

“But I think that if he does do it that way, it is because he knows

he can raise huge money.”

Dean already has brought in $25 million. But, as Foley pointed

out, Democrats typically cannot raise as much money as Republicans.

“I see the reason why he chose to do that,” Foley said, noting

that President George W. Bush is planning to forgo public money

himself, and thus could throw huge sums into political advertisements

before the Democrats choose their nominee.

Also, with the economy showing signs of improvement, Foley said

that the situation in Iraq “is a huge issue. It may be a bigger issue

in the general [election] that in the primary.”

Iraq certainly may turn out to be the decisive issue in the

primary. Dean, of course, started as the antiwar candidate and

continues to ride that political wave.

More interestingly, though, might be how the Iraq war derails

another candidate: Kerry.

“If Kerry had voted against the Iraq war, it is very likely that

he would still be the front-runner and Dean would probably be an

asterisk rather than the front-runner,” Washington political analyst

Charlie Cook wrote in his weekly column, which tracks elections.

“In voting for [the] Iraq resolution, Kerry voted against

everything he had ever represented and effectively cut himself off

from his own base.”

And that’s no way to win an election.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He can be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.