See how they’ll run

S.J. CAHN

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher has to be one of the most dispirited

Republicans in the country right now. (On the other side, Sen. Joseph

Lieberman likely is the least happy Democrat after Al Gore’s

endorsement of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for president.)

Instead of enjoying a carefree winter and early spring, it appears

all but certain that Rohrabacher will be engaged in a nasty,

potentially costly, fracas for his political future now that former

Rep. Bob Dornan has decided to run for Rohrabacher’s seat.

I write “appears” because it would not astonish me at all if

Dornan pulled out of the race if he fails to get early traction, both

finance- and support-wise. More on that later.

Dornan, as the Pilot has reported, has historically been a

remarkably strong fundraiser. While his active campaign committee has

just $36,700 cash on hand according to the latest reports (and

$15,500 in debt for legal fees, a sum he’s been carrying for a

while), the last time he ran for Congress, back in 1998, he raised

and spent about $3.7 million in his second losing effort against Rep.

Loretta Sanchez. (His “Dornan for President” committee -- remember

when B-1 Bob ran for president? -- is also carrying $152,000 in debt.

Not that the amount matter: at the end of 1996, the committee was

saddled with $186,000 in debt, so he clearly isn’t on fire to pay it

off.)

Rohrabacher tends to raise far less than one-tenth that amount.

Even during the 2002 race, when he had a relatively formidable

Democratic opponent, he only collected $355,000 and still trounced

Gerrie Schipske with 63% of the vote. (Schipske, remember, had barely

lost a Long Beach-area race in 2000 against Rep. Steve Horn. Horn

collected 87,266 votes to Schipske’s 85,498.) Rohrabacher fared

better against Schipske in his realigned district, which included her

base of Long Beach after the 2000 Census, than he had two years

earlier.

Rohrabacher’s strength in the general election is one shared

throughout the House of Representatives. In 2002, for instance, of

the 390 incumbent House members running, 383 won reelection. It’s

probably safe to say that the strength of incumbency is the most

common characteristic in the House -- maybe it is even a commonality

that those who argue for the need for civility could use as way to

bring warring factions together. (Perhaps there’s a place for a

bipartisan “We Always Win” PAC.)

It’s also worth noting that Orange County, so long known as a GOP

bastion unassailable to Democrats (a buttress breached by Sanchez’s

victory over Dornan), may not be so unusual. Essentially, every House

district at this point is unconquerable in general elections. Only in

the primary does an incumbent face a true chance of defeat.

And that is what Rohrabacher faces now, though my guess is that

Dornan confronts the tougher challenge. Judging by the response of

Pilot readers, Dornan will have to prove he isn’t saponaceous. He’ll

have to raise a bunch of money quickly, probably in time for it to

appear on year-end finance reports so he can tout his war chest and

argue that he is legitimate.

If Dornan doesn’t muster the needed money by then, perhaps

Rohrabacher will have a quiet winter, after all.

ALL ABOUT ETHICS

On a separate issue, I feel compelled -- if not proud -- to report

on a Gallup Poll that appeared earlier this month.

It’s always one of the year’s best: the list of the most ethical

and honest professions.

Nurses, a perennial winner, topped the list again, with 84% of

people calling their ethics either “very high” or “high.” Car

salespeople limped in last, with just 7% saying the same of them. The

poll was conducted Nov. 14 through 16.

Since I don’t have a car to pitch to you, their fate isn’t my

concern. No, no. Mine is the news that journalists dropped 1% in

people’s eyes this year, just 25% saying journalists have “very high”

or “high” ethics.

Amazingly, that low number puts us about in the middle of the

pack, with senators, business executives, members of Congress,

lawyers, stockbrokers, advertising practitioners, insurance

salespeople, HMO managers and those poor car sales folk all trailing.

State governors, by the way, sneaked in ahead of journalists at

26%. Given the mid-November period, I can only assume that they did

so because California’s new governor had joined their ranks.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He can be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.