Parking lot theory of economics breaks down

STEVE SMITH

Part of my occupation involves keeping an eye on what is happening in

the retail segment of the Newport-Mesa economy. And every year around

Thanksgiving, I predict the health of the upcoming Christmas

gift-giving frenzy by watching the parking lots at South Coast Plaza.

It’s a simple premise: More cars means more shoppers. More shoppers

means more money being spent.

I’ve been right more often than not. This year, I was wrong. Sort

of. My examination of the crowds was accurate. I saw lots of cars in

the parking lots. Specifically, the lot bordering the San Diego

Freeway was packed on one of my judgment days. So I started to assume

a healthy shopping season.

Then I read a couple of things that have made me think I’m wrong.

The first was a study that showed that the average family’s total

Christmas shopping tab would be down a little bit this year.

The other news I read was a report from the Census Bureau of the

Department of Commerce. It announced on Nov. 21 that the estimate of

U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2003, not

adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading-day differences, was

$13.291 billion, an increase of 27.0% (4.2%) from the third quarter

of 2002.

That, folks, is a huge increase. But it didn’t stop there. Just a

few days ago, I read that the seasonally adjusted figure was up 42%

over the same period last year.

So, if the malls are packed and online sales are up, who’s got all

this money, and what on Earth are they buying?

“They” is you and me. After Sept. 11, 2001, after the war in Iraq,

after California’s successful dumping of a bad governor and after the

so-called “experts” telling us that our economy is in serious

trouble, we seem to have decided on our own that the sky is not

falling.

As for what we’re buying, that’s easy. Go to purchase something at

Best Buy at Metro Pointe, and you’ll wait in a line as long as the

Corona del Mar Freeway (which doesn’t go to Corona del Mar, by the

way). People are buying TVs like they’re going out of style.

Which reminds me to ask you if I can mow your lawn or wash your

windows on Sunday for a few bucks. You see, on Monday, we have to

give our kids $90 each for not having watched television for five

straight years. So I need some extra dough.

I thought about the kids when I was at Best Buy trying to

understand why anyone would pay thousands of dollars for a TV and

satisfied that I did not know the difference between a plasma

television and an HDTV, if there is one.

My daughter wants a phone for Christmas. The two phones in our

home are both cordless, so she can have one in her room anytime she

wants, but I guess there’s something to making it “her” phone.

She’s 13 and at the point where the phone is looking more like a

growth out of her ear. Truly, I don’t care as long as her homework is

getting finished and her room is tidy. Well, at least her homework is

getting done.

Still, I’m not sure about the phone. We have two lines in the

house, but one is used for my dinosaur, I mean, dial-up modem. And

there’s no “call waiting” on the one line, so her long conversations

can prevent some contact home once in awhile. Not long ago, I found

myself calling my wife’s cellular phone at home just to get through.

My son wants a clarinet, and since he has moved from the

“fingernails on a blackboard” sound to something reasonably

enjoyable, Santa may just bring him one.

Other gifts they may get will stimulate minds and bodies. I like

sporting goods, bikes and other outdoor playthings.

Inside, I’m thinking along the lines of books, good old movies and

some board games. They will not get any video games. And the things

that plug in the wall or use batteries will be limited to the movies

that need a DVD player or VCR to view them.

Were they younger, we’d be talking about toys such as Lincoln

Logs, Tinkertoys or an Erector set. Do they still make Erector sets?

I’ll let you know.

On second thought, with that bankroll they’re getting on Monday,

they each can buy their own Erector set. That may help make their

dad’s retail forecast come true.

* STEVE SMITH is a Costa Mesa resident and freelance writer.

Readers may leave a message for him on the Daily Pilot hotline at

(949) 642-6086.