Reasons to count Dornan out

S.J. CAHN

Everywhere I go, people who follow politics closely seem nearly

obsessed with the looming Dana Rohrabacher-Bob Dornan primary fight.

Some even think Dornan has a real shot at unseating Surf City’s

own surfing Congressman.

I have serious doubts about that, though I certainly believe

Dornan’s challenge will make for a rough few months for Rohrabacher

and, as an extreme long shot, could make Rohrabacher more vulnerable

in the general election.

Here’s why, based on early reports and indications about Dornan’s

plan of attack.

1. Dornan will try to capitalize on Rohrabacher’s long association

with Muslim-Americans and members of foreign groups, such as the

Taliban, that are now at the top of America’s enemies list.

The problem: Whom else will Dornan have to accuse? It’s a strange

truth to foreign policy that friends one day can be enemies the next.

Saddam Hussein is the most obvious example of that now. Top

Republicans such as Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Vice

President Dick Cheney have similar pasts (and there are photos of

them similar to the one of Rohrabacher kneeling with Taliban

fighters).

If Dornan tries to make an issue of this, he’ll force the GOP to

rally around Rohrabacher to quiet Dornan’s charges, which could

trickle out and infect others.

2. Dornan will make an issue of Rohrabacher’s support for medical

marijuana use, while bringing up Rohrabacher’s admitted past drug

use.

The problem: While many still believe illegal drug use is a

problem, the numbers who do are dropping. A Gallup poll from October

found that just 3 in 10 Americans believe the nation’s drug problem

is extremely or very serious. And while 71% said it was serious or

worse, that is down from 83% who said so in 2000. What’s more, less

than half said drugs are a serious problem in their own communities,

and only 2% said it was the most pressing issue in the country.

In other words, this issue doesn’t have the traction Dornan needs

to unseat Rohrabacher.

Dornan’s attack on his opponents’ past drug use falters for the

above reasons, and for a few others. First, Rohrabacher has not

hidden his past experimentation. But more important is this:

Rohrabacher isn’t alone when it comes to pass drug use (it’s kind of

a similar story to Rumsfeld’s meeting with Saddam).

Obviously, former President Clinton pops to mind. So does former

Vice President Al Gore. How about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich?

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas? New York Gov. George Pataki?

Even better--California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Best -- President Bush.

Can Dornan truly expect a little pot in Rohrabacher’s past to

propel him back to Congress?

3. Dornan will count on conservatives in coastal Orange County to

back him.

Dornan famously lost his House seat because his district was the

least Republican and least conservative in Orange County. His bitter

relationship with Rohrabacher goes back to Dornan’s not getting the

safer Surf City seat, even.

The problem: If coastal Orange County were Dornan-like

conservative, voters would not have come out in droves to back

Schwarzenegger in the recall. As the last test of where voters are,

politically, the recall suggests they are much more socially tolerant

than Dornan’s, umm ... reputation is.

4. Dornan will be able to mount a national campaign and collect

money from across the country.

The problem: As I’ve written before, we will get our first

indication of whether Dornan can mount such a campaign when the

end-of-the-year campaign finance statements become public later this

month. If Dornan has raised a surprising amount of cash, his hopes

swell. But they also sink, for if Dornan is suddenly a legitimate

threat, Rohrabacher will get help from the mainstream GOP (and even

some Democrats, supposedly) that should offset any monetary advantage

Dornan has.

The bottom line: I don’t think many people outside Dornan’s family

and maybe some die-hard fans want him back in the House. So how does

he win?

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.