It feels good to return money

S.J. CAHN

In seeking to digest the news this week that two candidates in the

crowded Republican primary for the 70th District Assembly seat may

have to return loans in excess of $100,000, I choked on a singular

piece of the puzzle: Both saw no problems. One even took a page out

of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s playbook and announced, “We’re

delighted with the ruling.”

Let’s step back a few paces. Irvine’s Chuck DeVore and Corona del

Mar’s Cristi Cristich both got caught in the wake of a Superior Court

decision directed at Schwarzenegger. The governor, a judge decided in

a preliminary ruling this week, violated campaign finance rules by

taking out a $4.5-million bank loan during his campaign this past

fall. The laws, the judge said, should cap that loan amount at

$100,000.

It turned out that Cristich and DeVore had gone the same route,

with Cristich getting a $250,000 loan and DeVore one for $115,000.

Now it appears they -- and the governor -- will have to repay the

loans, with the money coming right out of their campaign coffers or

pocketbooks.

A big hit, right? Well, I’d think so, but then read what

Schwarzenegger and DeVore had to say:

“This is great, this decision,” Schwarzenegger told a group of

journalists in Sacramento on Tuesday. “It’s fantastic . We never

wanted to raise the money to pay it back ... . It was a great

decision for the judge. Exactly what we intended to do, and that’s

exactly the way the law ought to be.”

Here’s what DeVore told the Daily Pilot, echoing the governor

nicely: “We were hopeful that the judge would restore the letter and

the spirit of Prop. 34 and would restore as a consequence the

$100,000 cap that a candidate can loan their campaign. We’re

delighted with the ruling.”

If your head isn’t spinning, it should be.

One of Cristich’s campaign advisors told the Pilot that there

would be no pain in her campaign: “I suspect that it’s not going to

have any big impact in her case because she’s quite capable of

turning that loan into a donation if she needs to.”

Would that we all were so lucky.

Now, despite what these candidates are saying, it’s pretty

unconvincing to argue that having more than $100,000 effectively

removed from their coffers won’t hurt Cristich and DeVore (and

doesn’t the governor, even, have to hurt a little at the possibility

of paying $4.5 million out of his pocket?). Perhaps both can just tap

into their personal bank accounts. But maybe seeing the account head

south will make at least one rethink the worth of running.

The winner in this ruling would certainly seem to be 70th District

GOP candidate Don Wagner of Irvine, who already appeared to be

surging while running third in the money race. Wagner’s biggest

hurdle at this point is that he is fighting for a pool of

conservative voters that also is the target of DeVore and Newport

Beach resident Marianna Zippi.

And that pool is not big enough to cut into three, especially

given the size of the middle-of-the-road and somewhat conservative

group of voters that is Cristich’s base. If Wagner, DeVore and Zippi

split the conservative vote evenly enough, Cristich wins the

nomination. But if Wagner claims the vast majority of the

conservative vote, the race is close. So any pain to DeVore helps

him.

Here’s at least a hint as to why. In its 2001 survey of Orange

County residents, UC Irvine found this political breakdown: 28%

middle of the road; 28% somewhat conservative, 20% somewhat liberal,

12% very conservative, 9% very liberal and 3% who didn’t know.

According to those numbers, Wagner, DeVore and Zippi’s core base

is only 12% of voters. Cristich, however, would appear to be the

choice -- in the most generic sense, of course -- of at least 28% and

as much as 56%.

Now, the percentages in play, given the conservative nature of the

70th District, are probably closer than the UCI numbers make it. But

can there be much doubt that Cristich has support that she can afford

lose and that Wagner, DeVore and Zippi need every ballot they can

get?

They can’t win losing them to one another.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.