Electing not to predict voter numbers

Alicia Robinson

They call it “Super Tuesday,” but it’s anyone’s guess how powerful

voter turnout will be for today’s primary election.

Polls opened this morning at 7 a.m. for the 106,696 registered

voters in Costa Mesa and Newport Beach. Newport-Mesa voters will

decide on four statewide ballot issues and Republican races in either

the 68th or 70th Assembly District as well as the 35th Senate

District and 46th Congressional District, which also has a Democratic

contest.

Secretary of State Kevin Shelley predicted a 43% turnout among the

state’s 15-million registered voters. In Orange County, the last

presidential primary in 2000 drew 59% of registered voters, but only

41.4% of those registered cast ballots in the 2002 March primary,

according to the county Registrar of Voters.

While local election observers shied away from making firm

predictions on today’s voter turnout, they were open about what they

think will draw, or fail to draw, voters in the area.

Much attention is expected to focus on the 70th Assembly District

race, which has been a particularly nasty one.

“It seems to me that that’s the one that kind of takes the

forefront of everything,” GOP pollster Adam Probolsky said. “There’s

just been so much back and forth in that race and so much money has

been spent.”

Despite some heated state races in today’s election, voters

generally flock to the polls because of issues rather than

candidates, UC Irvine political science professor Mark Petracca said.

Proposition 55, a public education bond issue, isn’t controversial

enough to pull voters in, and neither are Propositions 57, the

$15-billion bond backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, or 58, which

would require the state to balance its budget, he said.

While some polls show the latter two issues winning by a slim

margin, voters here may say no to the Governor’s bonds, Petracca

said.

“Notwithstanding the county’s support for Schwarzenegger, it won’t

surprise me if 57 and 58 lose in Orange County,” he said.

The school bond issue will bring out pro-school parents around

Orange County, Probolsky said.

“I’m not sure it’s going to do so well in Orange County overall

[however,]” he said.

Conservatives will come out in force to defeat Proposition 56,

which would allow the Legislature to pass taxes and other budgetary

bills on a 55% vote instead of two-thirds. Critics say it gives the

legislature a blank check to raise taxes, Probolsky said.

“It’s going to die abysmally in Orange County, especially in the

Costa Mesa and Newport area, because people there understand the

ramifications of ... making it easier to raise taxes,” he said.

Petracca noted that voter turnout has been declining nationwide

for the last 45 years. The county’s efforts to offer early voting

this year and the rise of absentee voting haven’t helped much either,

he said.

Orange County Registrar of Voters spokesman Brett Rowley said

179,144 absentee ballots had been cast as of Monday, and more than

4,700 people voted early between Feb. 3 and 22 at 16 locations around

the county.

* ALICIA ROBINSON covers business, politics and the environment.

She may be reached at (949) 764-4330 or by e-mail at

alicia.robinson@latimes.com.