The feverish rush to election night

S.J. CAHN

Three days of absurdly high fevers will change a man.

That’s how I spent the bulk of last week, pushing our old

thermometer to see if it could, in fact, register 104.

I don’t recommend it, although tearing your psyche apart via a

really fine sick does wonders for the soul.

As my thoughts started coming back together, they occasionally

alighted on our local political scene (I’m telling you, I was really

sick).

So, all that aside, here are some post-feverish thoughts on

November’s elections, in no particular order of importance.

Costa Mesa tide

After two elections in which so-called Westside Improvers have

gained seats on the council, first via Chris Steel in 2000 and then

Allan Mansoor in 2002, I think the increase will stop this year.

It’s not that I think an Improver won’t win. But I don’t see Steel

and another Improver-backed candidate -- in this case, Planning

Commissioner Eric Bever -- both victorious.

A bit of ink has been spent recently on Steel losing his core of

supporters, so it’s easy at this point to declare his chances slim.

And probably, it’s pretty right on. Steel had the element of

surprise, in terms of a well-organized machine in 2000 that altered

his decades-long curious campaign into a winning one. Lacking that

organization this time around, he awaits a tough battle -- especially

in a city that hasn’t been easy on incumbents the last two times

around.

I also think the other candidates -- Councilman Mike Scheafer,

Planning Commission Chairman Bruce Garlich, Planning Commissioner

Katrina Foley and Parks Commissioner Mirna Burciaga, who are all

firmly in the race -- and possible candidates, former Mayor Linda

Dixon and resident Samuel Clark, will not be shy about pushing Steel

(and Bever, likely) on central Improver issues: the number of

charities; the direction and type of development downtown and on the

Westside; the status of the city’s Job Center. Those issues have not

been the subject of much discussion during the elections in 2002 and

2000.

Voters will be the winner if they are this time around, because a

campaign full of substantive debate about Costa Mesa’s future is

needed.

Newport Beach consistency

I’m not foreseeing much change post-election.

I’ve seen, for instance, a list of Councilman Steve Bromberg’s

advisors, and it includes a strong cross-section of his district (and

the town, more generally, even). He and his backing will be difficult

to beat.

That’s a marked turn from election night 2000, when Bromberg was

in a tight race with slow-growth, Greenlight-backed candidate Pat

Beek. He defeated her 13,972 to 13,060.

I wonder if Bromberg even will be challenged.

The fortunes of another 2000 candidate have grown even brighter

than Bromberg’s in the years since that election: Councilman Steve

Rosansky.

The councilman might not want to remember it, but he placed third

in the race for the West Newport seat, won then by Gary Proctor --

the man Rosansky eventually replaced on the council.

Today, Rosansky is getting high marks for his six months on the

council from all corners of Newport’s political spectrum -- which

bodes well for him in the fall. There isn’t even another obvious

candidate to challenge him at this point.

Finally, there’s the one wildcard: Councilman John Heffernan. He’s

still playing a bit coy on whether he’ll run again. If he does,

here’s my “isn’t that strange” prediction: Heffernan, who ran and won

when backed by Greenlight in 2000 (the group’s first council win), is

the most likely to get a challenge from a Greenlight-backed

candidate.

I failed to get ahold of a Greenlight spokesman to see if there’s

even a hint of truth to that thought, so at this point, it’s just

wild speculation.

But wait and see.

Out of their control

While sick, I did -- toward the end, when the fever and

accompanying hallucinations retreated -- hear a good bit of news

radio. And something struck me, strongly.

Now, here’s where the hate mail should start.

President Bush is going to lose in November.

Why?

Well, he obviously has the best group of political handlers and

managers in existence (the Democratic National Committee’s Terry

McAuliffe’s uber-optimism and over-caffeinated enthusiasm

notwithstanding). The combination of Karl Rove and the

underappreciated Karen Hughes (back now from a break in Texas) is an

unbeatable one. They managed close votes across the country and

Bush’s malapropisms and beat back a strong Democratic economic record

in 2002. They are unafraid to do what’s necessary to win. They put

circa-1992 James Carville and George Stephanopoulos to shame.

But in 2000, we were living in quiet, manageable times. We aren’t

today. Iraq, the war on terrorism, Afghanistan and who knows what

next are not going to be controllable. And that strips the Bush Team

of its greatest political (and, as always, I’m talking solely

political) advantage.

(By the way, the mention of hallucinations, while true, is also a

gift to letter-writers who want to disagree with me. “S.J. Cahn must

still be hallucinating ... “ The rest is up to you. We have a Forum

page awaiting your thoughts.)

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.