Great weather today, catastrophe tomorrow

VIC LEIPZIG AND LOU MURRAY

Huntington Beach has had really great weather this past week, hasn’t

it? It’s hard to believe that it’s August.

Vic and I have been enjoying these cool days and balmy evenings by

walking on the beach. Crying gulls, crashing waves and the whispering

squish of footfalls on sand provided a soundtrack as the miles rolled

away under our feet.

On some of our walks, a misty marine layer muted the colors and

softened the sounds. On other days, the sun glittered on the sand and

waves so brightly that our eyes hurt from the beauty as much as the

brightness. The loveliness of blue water lapping at golden sand

lulled us into contentment and gave us a false sense that wondrous

days like these will go on summer after summer. This may not be the

case.

Our planet is currently in an interglacial period that has lasted

10,000 years, the longest period of moderate climate in the past

400,000 years. Mankind is enjoying a daydreaming honeymoon with

nature that may be coming to an end soon, as the world topples off a

precarious balance of climate stability and lurches into an era of

dramatic climate change.

Unless you’ve had your head buried in the sand for the past 10

years, you’re aware that this planet is undergoing tremendous change

with loss of polar ice, loss of glaciers, increased severity of

storms, increased intensity of floods and droughts and increased

average global temperature. And unless you’re totally asleep at the

wheel of your SUV, you’re aware that this change is being brought

about by increases in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide,

that are released by burning fossil fuels.

Our oil-crazy administration in Washington would like us to ignore

scientific data that indicates that climate change is actually

happening. They don’t want us to connect climate change with

consumption of fossil fuel. Not trusting our own government to tell

us the truth anymore, Vic and I turned to the European Environmental

Agency for facts, figuring that they might be less controlled by oil

interests and therefore less biased.

The EEA released a 107-page report last week showing how climate

change is affecting crops, birds, human health and a whole slew of

other variables. If you want, you can read the entire report online

at reports.eea.eu.int/climate_report_

2_2004/en.

One of the key findings is that carbon dioxide levels now are at

their highest level in 500,000 years. Incidences of extreme heat

waves have increased, while cold extremes have decreased. Ocean

surface temperatures have risen, which affects phytoplankton and

causes southern marine species to move northward. The length of the

crop-growing season has increased by 10 days since 1962, but extremes

in weather have resulted in decreased productivity and even crop

failures in some regions.

And finally, the EEA reported that the changing global climate

will impact human health negatively, with more deaths from heat,

floods and vector-borne diseases. We see this happening already.

Another recent report specifically on California also caught our

eye. A scientific paper published in the prestigious Proceedings of

the National Academy of Sciences contained the worst prediction for

local change that we’ve seen. The scientists predicted a temperature

rise in California of an astonishing seven to ten degrees Fahrenheit

by the end of this century. Previous predictions have been for

changes in the range of two or three degrees, which would be enough

to cause a significant impact to society. This new prediction is far

worse.

The outcome will be a greatly reduced water supply as snowpack

diminishes and irrigation needs increase with heat. Just when we want

to water our yards more, there will be far less water. Crop yields in

California will plummet and the wine industry will be ruined,

bringing economic disaster to the state. Our city’s budget crisis is

bad now, but if the state falls into deeper financial straits, even

fewer of our tax dollars will trickle back to us. Heat-related deaths

in coastal cities will skyrocket, while inland cities like Riverside

will have temperatures more like Palm Springs, which in turn will be

more like Death Valley. And finally, increased temperatures will

foster the spread of mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus.

This is not some futuristic scenario or the plot of a bad disaster

movie. All of these changes are predicted to happen during the life

span of a baby born today.

The scariest part of these two reports is that even if nations all

over the globe were to immediately change their energy policies, the

changes would still occur because we’ve already added so much carbon

dioxide to the environment. Even if our nation shifts its energy

policy tomorrow to emphasize conservation and alternative energy

sources, the best we can hope for is an amelioration of the

inevitable drastic climate change that will occur within this

century.

The outlook for the coming climate change, especially a seven to

ten degree increase in temperature for California, is grim. But the

weather this past week was wonderful. Enjoy it while you can.

* VIC LEIPZIG and LOU MURRAY are Huntington Beach residents and

environmentalists. They can be reached at vicleipzig@aol.com.