Study forecasts fewer riders aboard CenterLine

Deirdre Newman

Transportation authority projections Monday of 10% fewer riders on

the CenterLine light-rail project than previously expected did not

budget support and simply enforced naysayers’ objections.

Supporters, like Mayor Gary Monahan, said the decrease in the

projection doesn’t alter his support for the $1 billion light-rail

system, which is slated to run 9.3 miles from Santa Ana to John Wayne

Airport through Costa Mesa.

“The project is not about the first leg,” Monahan said. “I firmly

believe that about 20 years down the road, it will be going from the

airport to Disneyland to -- if Anaheim has its way -- an NFL stadium.

Projections are like the wind. They change all the time.”

Opponents, like Councilman Allan Mansoor, said the decrease

confirms what critics have feared.

“I think it points to what I’ve been saying all along -- that the

ridership just is not going to be there to justify spending all this

money,” Mansoor said.

The Orange County Transportation Authority Board of Directors

received the revised projection Monday. The change comes at the

behest of the Federal Transit Administration, which asked the

authority to reevaluate its ridership projection based on new

standards the administration has developed, authority spokesman Ted

Nguyen said. The new standards will allow the administration to

equally assess light-rail projects across the country that are vying

for federal funds, Nguyen added.

The revised forecast for the year 2025 shows 22,600 riders per

day. The previous forecast showed 24,800 riders per day.

The lower number is still at the high end of what the

administration considers reasonable for new light-rail systems,

Nguyen said.

The City Council voted in 2001 to support the project. But

authority officials who developed the project are having trouble

securing federal funding needed to build it. They are looking to the

federal government to provide half of the approximately $1 billion

cost of the project. The other half would come from Measure M, the

half-cent sales tax to fund transportation improvements in Orange

County passed by voters in 1990.

* DEIRDRE NEWMAN covers government. She may be reached at (949)

574-4221 or by e-mail at deirdre.newman@latimes.com.