Oil is a capping factor at JWA

STEVE SMITH

One of the challenges in predicting the future of the quality of life

for families in the area is that it’s often done with current data.

The case in point is the traffic at John Wayne Airport.

People in and around the airport, and even those not very close,

are rightly concerned about an increase in the passenger limits that

expires in 2015.

Passenger volume is up this year over last year, but relative to

the traffic before Sept. 11, 2001, the gains are reduced.

Using the passenger counts as a projection, those of us who do not

want more flights out of John Wayne should have a reason to be

concerned. But those of us who are concerned also have a reason to be

optimistic. Before I explain, I want to repeat, again, my position on

air traffic in Orange County, the same one I’ve had since the

military gave up the base in El Toro.

I was against building an airport at El Toro, and I oppose more

traffic at John Wayne. In fact, if John Wayne disappeared, I’d be

very happy. I want less air traffic in the county, not more. It’s a

quality-of-life thing. Big, stinky, noisy airports -- either El Toro

or John Wayne -- are not my idea of contributors to a good quality of

life. And I did not buy the argument that we needed an airport the

size of El Toro to maintain economic viability. We’ve done quite well

without one, thank you very much.

Back to the crystal ball. All of the projections we can conjure

won’t mean a thing without including the card being played right now

on the international oil market. There, the price of a barrel of oil

has risen past $50 and is not likely to go back down.

Higher oil prices, significantly higher oils prices, are here to

stay. Airlines have depended on the cheaper oil to maintain the

reasonable and cheap fares they have been charging for many years.

But all that is coming to an end. Three major airlines, U.S. Airways,

United and Hawaiian Airlines, are now in Chapter 11 bankruptcy

protection. Higher fuel prices are making it difficult for them to

come out of bankruptcy. Right behind them is Delta Airlines, which is

citing the fuel increases as a chief reason for their troubles.

Higher fuel prices mean air fares now have nowhere to go but up.

In some cases, way up. That, in turn, will reduce the pool of

available fliers, who will determine with their wallets whether a

flight makes sense.

Every individual and every business has a breaking point. If you

are going on vacation, assuming that you are not of unlimited funds,

there is a fare ceiling -- a level at which you determine that the

cost is not worth the benefit. At that point, you will either cancel

your trip or make other vacation plans.

The fare ceiling is even more appropriate for business travelers,

who make up the majority of all fliers. As in a family, each business

has someone who is watching costs. When it costs significantly more

to fly employees to their destinations, businesses will develop

alternatives to the face-to-face meeting or they will just make fewer

trips with fewer people. That will mean less traffic at airports.

One of the alternatives is the teleconference or virtual meeting.

This is a remarkable tool that has been too slow to catch on in part

because of our cheap air fares have made it affordable to conduct

face-to-face meetings.

In a virtual meeting, everyone stays put. Live, real-time feeds

from each end allow the participants to have normal conversations,

which can include observing body language, an important part of doing

business. Product demonstrations are live as well, and when it’s

over, people can get right back to work. Parents can enjoy more time

with their kids.

The higher fuel costs have other quality-of-life benefits. Over

time, drivers will opt for trains and car pools. Businesses will also

increase the number of telecommuters, people who work at home. After

all, if we can ship work to India, there is no reason why we have to

make millions of workers drive from, say, Corona to Costa Mesa to get

their work done. All this means fewer cars on the freeways.

By the way, there is evidence that people who work at home are

more productive (fewer interruptions) and happier (less stress) than

the commuting colleagues.

The rise in fuel prices will create a situation in which there are

winners and losers. Our quality of life will continue to improve even

with the higher fuel costs, even as some businesses suffer (I am

reminded of El Nino six years ago. The car wash industry was in

crisis while roofers did not have time to tie their shoes).

We now know that there will never be an airport at El Toro. That’s

a good thing. It’s now time to wage a more intelligent battle against

higher caps at John Wayne by creating an updated, realistic model of

life in 2015.

The data required for the argument against higher caps include

surveys of businesses, vacationers and a projection of the impact of

ever-increasing fuel prices on the cost of an airplane ticket.

Some of the scenarios are not easy to project. But if we are to

maintain or improve the quality of life in the area through lower

airport activity, it’s well worth it.

* STEVE SMITH is a Costa Mesa resident and a freelance writer.

Readers may leave a message for him on the Daily Pilot hotline at

(949) 642-6086.