Congressional race on familiar grounds

Dave Brooks

The Democratic challenger to 16-year incumbent Republican Rep. Dana

Rohrabacher is hoping there is enough change in the political wind to

sail him into the House of Representatives.

Democrat Jim Brandt is running an aggressive campaign against

Rohrabacher for a the 46th Congressional District seat. Green Party

candidate Tom Lash is also running for the seat, as is Libertarian

Keith Gann.

Traditionally the coastal district -- which begins in Palos

Verdes, stretches past Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors down to

parts of Costa Mesa -- has been considered a safe district for

Republicans.

Voter registration figures report 137,300 registered Republicans

in the 46th district versus about 83,200 registered Democrats.

That’s a large barrier Brandt said, but if he can win the vote of

the 51,400 voters who have declined to state their party affiliation,

he thinks he has a good chance of winning.

The retired Marine Corps aviator said his background in the

military and business -- he served as chief operating officer for a

large banking corporation -- could appeal to independents and

moderate Republicans.

“To win this district, you can’t tell voters they’re not paying

their fair share of taxes or try to convince them to go on some sort

of humanitarian mission,” he said. “You have to go after them with a

business sense.”

Brandt is also a strong supporter of Democratic presidential

candidate John Kerry and thinks that an anti-Bush backlash might dig

him up some votes.

“A lot of Republicans think it doesn’t matter how they vote in

California,” because of the electoral college system, he said. “So

they won’t turn out.”

Brandt, who opposes offshore drilling and supports stronger

regulation, is hoping that the redistricting of the 46th

Congressional area to include more coastal communities will be a

boon, since Rohrabacher is typically considered weak on environment.

The League of Conservation Voters recently issued a report on

Rohrabacher’s voting record, giving him one of its lowest possible

ratings.

Still, in the face of so many challenges, Rohrabacher retains one

key advantage over Brandt: Rohrabacher is the incumbent.

Political watchdog group Common Cause reports that incumbents beat

their challengers 93% to 95% of the time, and their odds increase

steadily each year in office.

Not only is Rohrabacher an incumbent, he’s become something of a

nationally known conservative, recently grabbing headlines for

recommending a constitutional amendment that could pave the way for

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to become U.S. president.

“Some of my right-wing friends got mad at me for that, but I

wanted to show the public the difference between legal and illegal

immigration,” said Rohrabacher, who is also known on Capitol Hill as

a fervent critic of American immigration policy. “Those who come here

illegally should be deported and have no rights.”

Rohrabacher also has raised about 10 times as much as Brandt,

bringing in $668,000 since January 2003, finance disclosures show.

“I’m confident, but I’m not overly confident. The people of this

district know who I am,” said Rohrabacher, who agreed to two

Wednesday debates with Brandt, the results of which were not

available by deadline.

“I’ve always agreed to debate my opponents,” he said. “I think

it’s the responsibility of everyone in public life.”

The pair differ on most prominent national issues. In general,

Rohrabacher has supported President Bush on the invasions of both

Afghanistan and Iraq.

When asked whether he would have voted to authorize the president

to go to war, Brandt said “right now my answer would have been no,

but hindsight is 20-20,” he said.

Now that the U.S. has troops in Iraq, it needs to do its best to

ensure that civil warfare doesn’t erupt, he said. Brandt added that

he believes the country needs to refocus on internal efforts to

protect the United States, and has called for a massive security

initiative to protect the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach from

terrorists who might try to smuggle in a nuclear device.

“That’s the worst nightmare,” he said, “If something like that

happens, nothing else matters.”